The following article is a summary of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 section on marine ingredients. The original paper is available from: https://doi.org/10.1787/601276cd-en

Consumption of global seafood is expected to increase, with most of that growth occurring in Asia and Africa. This includes only a slight increase in per capita consumption from 21.1 to 21.8kg. Aquaculture will continue to be the main driver of global seafood production, increasing to 56% of the global supply of more than 200 million tonnes by 2034. Despite this growth and maintenance in demand, the global prices of seafood are expected to decline in real terms.

Exports of seafood are expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous decades. Furthermore, increasing uncertainties face the sector, including changing environmental conditions which impact global production and geopolitical tensions impacting trade policies. Improvement in global fisheries management offers some respite, while a growing focus on sustainable practices will continue to dominate further development of aquaculture.

Fishmeal and fish oil
Marine ingredients have long been considered strategic feed ingredients to global aquaculture production. Of the 21 million tonnes (live weight) of fish products utilised for non-food uses in 2034, 83% are projected to be used for fishmeal and fish oil production. The remaining 17% is likely to be made up of other nonfood uses such as for ornamental fish, fingerlings, bait, pharmaceutical goods or as trash-fish use in parts of the world (Figure 1)

Fishmeal will continue to be used primarily as a strategic ingredient in aquaculture feeds, and by 2034, 84% of global fishmeal production will be used by this sector as feed, compared to 78% in the base period of the OECD-FAO study (2022-2024). China will continue to be the largest aquaculture producer, and with this also the largest consumer of fishmeal. OECD-FAO estimates that China will account for 42% of world fishmeal
consumption by 2034.

Although fishmeal is mainly used as a feed ingredient by the aquaculture sector, fishmeal is not the main feed ingredient used by that sector. Other feed ingredients, mostly agricultural products such as soybean meal, wheat, rapeseed and corn will continue to make the largest contribution to nutrient supply in feeds for the sector in the foreseeable future. Fundamental differences in scale (3,775 million tonnes grain production versus 6 million tonnes of fishmeal and oil production in 2022 – Figure 2) explain the rationale for this, along with there being limited capacity for any
major fishmeal and fish oil production increase. The OECD-FAO study forecasts that by 2034, the use of ingredients such as soybean meal in aquaculture will reach 11 million tonnes, whereas fishmeal inclusion in aquaculture feeds will increase to 4.9 million tonnes.

Consumption of global fish oils shows a different story of growing competition between aquaculture and dietary supplements for human consumption. Forecasts suggest that by 2034, nearly 60% of fish oil (0.9 million tonnes) will be utilised by aquaculture. Farmed salmonids will be the largest aquaculture consumer, with salmonid producing nations like Norway, Chile, Turkiye, and UK continuing to be the main consumers. The remaining 40%+ will be consumed mostly by direct human consumption (pharmaceutical) and pet food applications.

The OECD-FAO study predicts that the quantity of capture fisheries production that is made into fishmeal and fish oil will show an upward trend in the next decade, compared to the previous decade. While the total volume will vary between 15 million tonnes in El Niño years and 17 million tonnes during peak fishing years, the total fishery resource used for direct rendering (forage use) remains well below the 26 millions tonnes of fish which which were used in the 1990s.

Global production of fishmeal and fish oil is projected to reach 5.9 million tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes by 2034, respectively, representing a 12% increase for both ingredients compared to the base period. Much of this increase is likely to come from fish by-products, with their use in fishmeal production steadily rising over the past decade reaching almost 40% (2 million tonnes) of total production in 2023 (Figure 3). This is likely to continue, driven by the growing demand for fish fillets by consumers, which generates more by-product resource for marine ingredient production. For fish oil, the proportion sourced from by-products exceeds that of fishmeal due to the high oil levels in the waste streams from some aquaculture production sectors (e.g. salmon and pangasius). More than 54% (0.66 million tonnes) of all fish oils came from by-products in 2023. This growth is expected to continue albeit at a slower pace in the next decade.

The OECD-FAO study projects that global exports of fishmeal will rise by 8% relative to the base period, reaching 3.8 million tonnes by 2034. The world’s largest fishmeal exporting country, Peru, is expected to record one of the highest growth rates over the next decade, driven largely by a rebound from the unusually low export volumes recorded during base period of the OECD-FAO study, when it experienced a very strong El Niño event.

China will continue as the dominant global fishmeal importer, accounting for more than half of all imports by 2034. This reflects the growing demand from its aquaculture sector. In contrast, fishmeal imports from other traditional importing countries, such as Norway and the European Union (EU), are projected to decrease as China takes a growing share of production.

Exports of fish oil are forecast to increase by 9% by 2034. Peru, Viet Nam, and Europe will lead global exports of fish oil. In Viet Nam, exports of fish oil will primarily consist of used cooking fish (pangasius) oil exported to the US, where it competes in price with used vegetable cooking oil. The EU, Norway and the United States will remain the primary importing markets over the next decade.

Prices of fish oils are expected to decline in both nominal (-7.5%) and real (-26%) terms over the next decade, reflecting the unusually high prices in the base period (Figure 4). These high fish oil prices during the base period (2022-2024) were caused by combination of unusually low harvests of anchoveta in Peru associated with the 2023 El Niño event and high global vegetable oil prices. 

The OECD-FAO study predicts the price of fish oil to decline until 2028 in real terms before returning to its historic trend of slow growth due to continuing demand from aquaculture feed and human consumption demands. Prices of fishmeal over the next decade are projected to increase in nominal terms (10%) but decline in real terms (-12%). The real term decline is projected to be significantly lower than in the previous
decade, when prices declined 24% from their historic peak in 2013-14. A continued decline in fishmeal prices is forecast in the short-term before settling into their historic pattern of remaining relatively stable on average but with potential price movement due to any El Niño event impacts that may occur over the coming decade. Overall, the future for marine ingredients looks to be steady and transitioning. Growth over the next decade will be limited (~12%), and likely to continue to be affected by global climatic weather like El Niño events. Increasingly the sector will transition from relying on whole wild fish to more use of fish by-product streams, serving an important role in the circular food economy as it seeks to retain important nutrients within our foodsystem.

Consistent with trends over the past decade, aquaculture feeds will become increasingly reliant on grain products to supply most of their nutrients, while marine ingredients will continue to play a strategic role.

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By Dean M. Akiyama and Dany Yukasano

Feed is the highest variable cost for shrimp production and feed management have a greater influence on harvest feed conversion ratio than feed quality.

There is a general understanding that for successful shrimp production, emphasis must be placed on dedicated farm management (at 50-60%), post larvae quality and handling (at 20-25%) and consistent feed quality (at 20-25%). Additionally, key to shrimp farming is the motivation and dedication of farm staff where it is critical that all staff are implementing and completing  assignments correctly and without delay when required.

Feed management accounts for 65-75% of the variation in feed conversion ratios (FCRs) at harvests. This is because the amount fed at each feeding, number of feedings per day, distribution of the feed in the pond and feed quantity adjustments have greater influence on the harvest FCR than on feed quality alone.

A standard growth curve for each shrimp production site needs to be developed, adjusted as needed and maintained for proper pond and feed management. Individual pond daily growth rates should be monitored and compared to the standard growth curve. If the growth rates are within ±10% of the standard, the pond conditions and feed management are acceptable. If the growth rate is below the standard curve, the farmer needs to check whether the water quality, pond bottom and/or animal health are at acceptable levels. If these are good, then increase the feeding rate. If the growth curve is above the standard curve, pond conditions are good but maybe survival rate is lower than expected. Consider lowering the feeding rate to maintain acceptable FCR.

Variable costs in production
Feed cost is the highest variable cost for shrimp production. The feed cost will range from 50-60% of the total production cost. The percentage of total cost will vary by country or region because of the pricing variations for manpower, electricity, post larvae and supplies. However, proper shrimp feed management will ensure that total feed cost is acceptable with more consistent production costs which increases the feasibility of shrimp production.

Proper feed management will also improve the water quality stability and lower pond bottom deterioration. There will be less feed wastes which directly affect water quality and pond bottom cleanliness.

Recommended shrimp feed sizes
Current small diameter shrimp feeds are a function of market or market demand rather than technical shrimp requirement. Shrimp do not swallow feed pellets when feeding. Shrimp will cut and crush feed with their mandibles located before their mouth and these particles are then eaten. Thus, pellet size is of minor importance. However, smaller pellets will have a greater number of pellets/kg feed which is an advantage. Attractants and water-soluble vitamins and minerals will leach faster from the smaller-sized feed. Smaller feed particles are also more easily lost in the pond sediments (Table 1). 

Feeding time and amount
There should be a minimum quantity of feed allocated for any feeding time by area of pond and not necessarily by feeding rate based on biomass of shrimp less than 4.0g (Table 2). A blind feeding rate table is recommended until shrimp average about 3.5g and when shrimp start to appear on the feeding trays (Refer to appendix I. Blind Feeding Program, 500,000 shrimp in 0.5ha pond (100/m2 ).

Monitoring daily feed consumption
There have been many systems developed for monitoring daily feed consumption. However, the most common and widely practised system is the use of feeding trays. The proper use of feeding trays is dependent on dedicated and experienced farm technicians. These technicians must interpret the data for feeding tray consumption, shrimp size, estimated biomass/survival rate, weather conditions and water quality at the feeding times.

Feeding trays are normally square or circular. The sides of the feeding tray should be 10cm high. This is important because when trays are raised slowly, the shrimp will remain in the feeding tray. You can observe the health condition of the shrimp as well as size uniformity. The feeding trays are weighted so they will sink evenly without the feed being flushed out from the trays.

Feeding trays are attached to the walkways on the side of the pond. The walkway should extend into the pond at a minimum of 2m from the pond dyke. The feeding trays should be placed 30-50cm from the pond bottom. Stable walkways should be built so the technician can easily work the feeding trays and observe the shrimp.

There should be a minimum of 4 trays/0.5ha pond with trays on each side of the pond. Larger ponds will require more feeding trays; 1ha: 6-8 trays and 2-3ha: 8-10 trays. To accurately calculate the feeding quantity per day, it is necessary to have accurate shrimp size (g, cast net sample) and accurate pond biomass (survival rate x stocking density x size but this is difficult to estimate accurately).

The actual stocking density may vary from 80% of bought numbers with poor transport and acclimation procedures to 120% with free post larvae given as top up to actual number bought. The estimated % survival rate calculated from a table is not reliable. The biomass estimate should be an average of the past 3 days running average of feed consumption to account for normal daily fluctuations. Good farm technicians can estimate biomass within 10% of actual total. This is critical to keep FCR low especially with low survival rates. Good farm technicians do not blindly follow feeding tables.

Feeding tray consumption levels
This is a tool for biomass and survival rate estimations with shrimp weight sampling using a cast net. The biomass estimate is also important at harvest, to determine the number of transport containers and ice required.

The technician will need the last 3 days average feed consumption, initial stocking density, ABW of shrimp and feeding table for the following calculations. 3-day average feed consumption (kg)/% feeding rate for shrimp size = kg biomass kg biomass/shrimp ABW(g) = number of shrimp population Number of shrimp/stocking density = Survival rate (%) Example: ABW = 14g, 3-day average feed consumption = 65kg, stocking density = 200,000 shrimp, feeding rate for 14g shrimp = 2.7%; 65kg/0.027 = 2,407kg biomass; 2,407kg/14g = 146,214 shrimp; 146,214 shrimp/200,000 shrimp = 73.1%

Good feed management requires checking actual feed consumption rates after every feeding or at least daily (Table 3). The amount of feed consumed can be compared to the previous day or days and adjustments can be made. Usually, feeding rate may be adjusted to an amount between +5% increase to -10% decrease. Attention should be given to lowering the feeding rate to maintain good water quality and low harvest FCRs.

However, if the shrimp growth rate is consistently below the established standard growth curve and acceptable water quality, consider increasing the feeding amount. Accurate daily feed consumption levels will also help to determine the standing biomass of shrimp.

A minimum of 75% of trays (3 of 4 trays) should be scored for feed rate adjustment. For example, a score of 0000 or 0001, feeding rate will be increased by 5%. A score of 0011 or 1111 or 1122, the feeding rate will remain the same. A score of 1222 or 2222, the feeding rate will be reduced by 10% (Table 4).

Most of the feed is consumed during the last 2 months of the shrimp production cycle (Table 5). Proper feed management is more critical during these times. During the first 30 days, the percentage of feed being fed is small, thus the blind feed system is recommended.

Feed management concepts

Feeding tables are only “guidelines”. Under normal conditions, actual daily feed consumption will fluctuate between 5-20%. This is primarily due to fluctuating pond conditions, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pond bottom, animal health and other factors. Therefore, the farm can develop a detailed feeding table which may look good, but it is of little value if daily feed consumption is not measured accurately (Table 6).

More feeding times per day of smaller quantities is better for shrimp than less feeding times of larger quantities of feed. Shrimp will eat more feed if fed many times resulting in faster growth and lower FCRs. An additional benefit will be more stable water quality because the leaching and feed waste will be more even during the day. However, there should be a minimum of 5kg feed given at any one time regardless of the stocking density, thus, with 2 feedings per day, there should be a minimum of 10kg feed per day.

The feeding rate for lowest FCR and fastest growth varies by 10-15%. If a higher growth rate is desired, the farm can increase the daily feeding amount by 15%. But an increase in growth rate of 10% (20g to 22g) increases FCR of 0.2-0.3 points (FCR 1.5 to 1.7-1.8). The water quality also needs to be monitored more carefully as there will be 15% more feed added to the pond daily. To achieve the lowest FCR, it is recommended to feed slightly less than satiation. Shrimp may forage the pond bottom for food but if too much sediment is observed in the water column, then the farmer should increase the feeding rate (Table 7).

Water and pond bottom quality critically affect shrimp growth rate, survival and FCR. Over feeding is the major cause of deteriorating pond conditions. If pond conditions are bad, the farm should exchange water and/or reduce feed quantity per day till pond conditions improve.

Low dissolved oxygen and low water temperatures directly reduce shrimp appetite and feed consumption levels. If these two water quality parameters are not optimal, shrimp appetite declines and the feeding rate should be reduced. If the levels are low in the morning, the feeding rate should be reduced too. As dissolved oxygen and temperature increase during the day, shrimp appetite will increase.

Shrimp are poikilotherms; they are cold blooded animals which are different from terrestrial warm-blooded animals. Their appetite and growth are regulated by external water temperatures. Lower water temperatures directly lower shrimp metabolism and growth. For every 1°C difference in temperature there is an 8-10% difference in growth; 30°C will have 15% faster growth than 28°C.

In the morning, shrimp will normally eat less feed than in the afternoon. Daily water temperatures will fluctuate during the day due to regional differences and weather: wind, rain, clouds. The water temperature fluctuation makes it difficult to estimate actual feed consumption at any feeding time.

Currently, genetically improved shrimp are bred for maximum growth performance. The growth rate of shrimp is the primary physiological stress on the animal. The faster the shrimp growth rate, the greater the stress on the animal. Therefore, water quality parameters should be stable; good water quality results in less energy for animal maintenance. Important water quality parameters include dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and transparency and among them, dissolved oxygen is most critical. Low dissolved oxygen levels reduce activity and metabolism. Shrimp stocks need a minimum and consistent dissolved oxygen level of 6.0ppm. At lower levels, shrimp may not die but are not growing at optimal levels.

Proper aeration levels should be used not only for maintaining dissolved oxygen levels but also for mixing the colder pond bottom water layer with the warmer top layer. In a deep pond of 1m depth without proper mixing of the water, the temperature difference between the top water and the bottom water layer can be 2°C. Higher dissolved oxygen and warmer water temperature at the pond bottom will improve animal performance.

With unpredictable weather conditions and fluctuating water quality conditions in outdoor production systems, there is no fixed daily nutrient requirement and intake for shrimp. Shrimp will eat more or less feed according to their physiological requirements at any one time. If no feed is available, shrimp will forage in the production environment for food. At times of shrimp stress due to water quality issues, it is recommended to reduce feeding by 50% or completely stop feeding for 2 to 4 days. Shrimp will forage for food and “clean” the pond bottom and reduce excessive algae.

When changing feed sizes, there should be 2 to 3 days interval where both feeds are mixed at a 50:50 ratio. This will make the transition from one size to another smoother and without loss of feed consumption. When feed size is abruptly changed, there may be a 2-3 days of lower feed consumption as the shrimp learn to adjust to the new feed. This is primarily because the attractant level and type may change slightly due to the formula and/or feed processing conditions.

Shrimp are nocturnal animals and are more active at night. Shrimp are actively feeding at night and will normally consume 50-60% of feed at night. However, this feeding behaviour is made complicated by the lower water temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen levels which decline at night. dissolved oxygen levels will still be decreasing at sunrise and will start to increase only about 2 hours after sunrise.

Avoid feeding at the centre of the pond where sludge and wastes accumulate because of paddlewheel water circulation. This area will have toxic gasses such as hydrogen sulphide from decaying organic material. A layer of oxidised material will cover the sludge area and if this layer is disturbed, these toxic gasses will be released into the pond water.

Appendices to this article are available from this link (https://bit. ly/3bpgFeA)
https://aquaasiapac.com/2022/06/23/appendices-for-shrimp-feed-management-in-outdoor-ponds-for-litopenaeus-vannamei-by-dean-m-akiyama-and-dany-yukasano/ Appendix I. Blind Feeding Program, 500,000 shrimp in 0.5ha pond (100/m2).
Appendix II. Feeding Program for L vannamei, 500,000 shrimp in 0.5ha pond (100/m2). Harvest production of 20.0 tonnes/ha, 70% survival rate, final body weight 28.0 g, FCR of 1.45.

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With fingerling supply from local hatcheries, next is embracing feed innovations for sustainable growth.

Over the past few decades, Vietnam’s marine fish farming industry has experienced several ups and
downs. Due to efforts and perseverance, farming for several main species has been established – most
notably for grouper (various species), Asian sea bass (barramundi), and cobia – yielding a total marine fish production of 46,000 tonnes in 2023, according to the Directorate of Fisheries, Vietnam.

Despite its vast potential, mariculture in Vietnam is still lagging inland aquaculture due to several significant challenges. The sector is primarily composed of smallscale, family-run farms with limited capital, operating in sheltered coastal bays. Initially reliant on wildcaught seed sources, mariculture has since shifted to importing seedstocks from neighbouring countries such as Taiwan, China, and Indonesia. With the transfer of breeding technology from research institutions, there is now domestic seed supply from local hatcheries.

Feed has also transitioned from homemade to commercial pellets, except for some carnivorous fish which depend partly on trash fish such as cobia and certain species of grouper. Annual tropical storms from September to  November in Central Vietnam often cause substantial losses. Moreover, as marine fish are often high-value species, they are primarily exported live to specialised markets such as Hong Kong and China. Domestic demandis often tied to tourism and festive seasons and prices can fluctuate rapidly when there are changes in consumer spending.

Yellowfin pompano: A breakout species
In the past two years, yellowfin pompano including short-fin species (Trachinotus falcatus), long-fin species (Trachinotus blochii) or their hybrids, have rapidly emerged as key species in mariculture, with an estimated production reaching 18,000 tonnes in 2024 (ADM teampers. comm.), ranking second only to the Asian sea bass. Yellowfin pompano farming has benefitted from years of accumulated experience in marine fish culture in Vietnam. In this article, we unravel factors contributing to its impressive  growth.

Fingerlings
These are now entirely supplied by domestic hatcheries, in sufficient quantity and quality. Short-fin pompano is usually stocked during the main season (March–June), while long-fin variants are used in the second season (July–October). This species readily accepts commercial feed, with only a small number of farms still relying on trash fish, mainly when prices are low or by-products are available from processing companies. Compared to grouper and cobia, pompano has lower nutritional requirements and can be fed either sinking or floating pellets, depending on the farm’s location, management
style, and farmer preference.

Cage farming
Yellowfin pompano is ideally suited for cage farming in sheltered coastal bays, especially in Central
Vietnam, where water quality is excellent. Recently, the government has officially zoned marine farming to balance the interests of various sectors and promote sustainable development.

Moderately priced fish
The fish is reasonably priced, versatile in preparation, suitable for daily consumption at home as well as
restaurants with table sizes from 500-700g per fish. Compared to high-value species like grouper,
barramundi and cobia, yellowfin pompano enjoys a more stable domestic market (Figure 1).

Strategic solutions for organic growth
To ensure sustainable development and future breakthroughs in yellowfin pompano farming, it is necessary to address a number of challenges with strategic solutions:

Expanding consumption market
To boost domestic consumption, it should be promoted through industry events and media campaigns, including cooking competitions. At the same time, if seafood processing factories can secure export contracts, the industry will gain stronger momentum for growth.

Improving fingerling quality
Successful breeding was first achieved in 2006. and the technology was transferred to local hatcheries. Presently, the fingerling supply chain is divided into two stages: broodstock conditioning for egg production, and nursery operations to supply 4–5cm fingerlings. Overall, it is crucial to develop fast-growing and disease-free fingerlings.

Optimising cage management
Inshore cage systems in sheltered bays are vulnerable to algal blooms during hot weather, and low oxygen levels during floods, when rainwater runoff affects coastal water quality. Therefore, cage placement, stocking time and stocking density are critical to minimise risks.

Recently, farmers have shifted from traditional wooden rectangular cages to more durable plastic round cages, which are both environmentally friendly (avoiding deforestation) and better able to withstand rough sea conditions.

Preventing diseases proactively
Fish health is highly dependent on environmental quality and influenced by local pollution levels and yearly weather patterns. Local authorities should monitor and issue warnings on stocking density, climate changes, and disease outbreaks. Farmers must adopt quarantine protocols for new fingerlings before transferring them to grow-out areas, and proactively prevent parasitic infections that can lead to bacterial outbreaks.

Using suitable commercial feed
Currently, it is estimated that farmers use about 60% slow-sinking and 40% floating pellets of different sizes (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.5, 10, 13 mm) suitable for fish mouth sizes at different farming stages. In addition to promoting fast growth and optimal fish health, pigments are often added to feeds to give the fish a desirable yellow colour for the domestic market (see Table 1). 

Perspective
After a “hot growth” period, yellowfin pompano farming, like other species, will enter a phase of consolidation. Farming may decrease like cobia, level off like grouper, or increase like Asian sea bass. Its future hinges on collaboration and innovation to address current challenges and ensure sustainability.

ADM Animal Nutrition is strategically expanding its presence in the marine fish feed sector, with a strong focus on high-performance solutions. One of the flagship products in the Vietnamese market is NUTRILIS POMPANO — a trusted name among aquaculture professionals. Key benefits include:

• Enhanced growth performance;
• Improved fish health;
• Superior body colouration.

With proven results and consistent quality, it continues to support farmers in achieving optimal yields and premium-quality harvests. 

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 The IFFO Annual Conference concluded on 23 October 2025 in Tokyo, after three days of information sharing about market trends, technical innovation and sustainability updates. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, climate uncertainty, and shifting trade dynamics, industry leaders and scientists came together to reaffirm their commitment to evidence-based decision-making.

A central theme of the conference was the critical role of industry in supporting effective fisheries management measures. The conference also addressed the growing need for realism in how aquafeed ingredients are assessed.

“As the sector evolves and objective facts are gathered, the narrative is shifting: responsible sourcing—rather than the simplistic binary of marine versus plant origin—is a key requirement for ingredient selection. This marks a significant turning point in how sustainability is defined and measured across the value chain” stated Petter M. Johannessen, IFFO’s Director General.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) remains a priority approach for the sector, with its holistic methodology offering a robust framework for evaluating environmental impacts across all. 

As the event drew to a close, IFFO announced that the 2026 Annual Conference would be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 19 to 21 October.

Global demands and complexities of marine ingredients

The third day of IFFO’s Annual Conference featured presentations and discussions on the global demands and complexities of marine ingredients, omega-3 markets and role in human health.

Marine ingredients update

IFFO’s Market Research Director Enrico Bachis set the scene with a review global demand trends for fishmeal and fish oil with IFFO’s estimates for 2024.

Trade

Fishmeal exports in 2024 were higher than in 2023, with Peru’s exports returning to higher levels (26%) with increased production followed by Scandinavia, Chile and India.

Demand

China once again led fishmeal imports with 48%, followed by Norway, Japan and Turkey. In terms of use, the aquaculture industry used 91% in 2024, similar to the previous years, as is the species consumption breakdown, with the largest fed aquaculture species being cyprinids (carps) at 41%, followed by crustaceans and other freshwater fish. Consumption of fishmeal in the pig sector as with poultry, which is mostly in China is reducing as fishmeal is being used more strategically, with consumption moving to aquaculture instead.

Demand

Fed aquaculture continues to grow, in 2024 reaching 73.75 million tonnes and China is producing 46% of the total production, followed by Asia (39%) and Latin America. In terms of the consumption of fishmeal by species, crustaceans appear to be consuming 25% of the total fishmeal destined to the aquafeed segment, down from 29% in 2023.

Marine fish and fresh water species reported an year-on-year increased participation to the overall consumption, while salmonids lost some ground. Dry petfood supply has increased by 8% from 2024 to 2023, with an inclusion rate of fishmeal between 0%-1.5%.

Fish oil

Fish oil, production and therefore exports of fish oil did not increase in 2024, with the largest exporting countries remaining the same with Vietnam, Denmark, and Norway leading the ranking. World fish oil imports did not rebound in 2024 remaining short of 1 million tonnes, but the country breakdown remained the same apart from a slight increase in China.

Consumption

Consumption by segments, aquafeed  is estimated to have consumed 63% and direct human consumption consuming 17%, while the leading consumers by fed aquaculture species, salmonids once again leads with 59%, followed by marine fish. Direct human consumption is estimated to have grown by 2% between 2023 and 2024, with leading consuming regions being North America (36%) and Asia (25%).

Japanese market trends

Hikaru Kondo, a trader in the Protein Meal and NGFI Section for Kanematsu, presented the statistical demand and aquaculture realities of the Japanese market, highlighting emerging preferences and growth trends.

Kondo noted that demand for fishmeal in Japan has remained steady for the large 10 years and is largely from aquaculture (72%), followed by livestock (13%) in 2024, with average total demand of around 350 K MT and is expected to increase.

While imports have largely been from South America/Peru (35%), there is emerging growth in imports from India and Oman, Peru’s fishmeal provides the density that is preferred by Japanese feed formulators.

For fish oil, Kondo noted domestic production is high and that feed again is the dominant market in Japan (71%), followed by direct human consumption (omega-3) at 9% in 2024. For import markets, Chile dominates this area (75%) with salmon oil which meets local certification demands. The production of Japanese Sardine Oil is increasing, both in terms of volume and value.

The main farmed species in Japan are  yellow tail, Red sea bream, Japanese eel, and Coho salmon, with varying fishmeal and fish oil inclusion rates but Japanese Eel having the highest for fishmeal inclusion and yellow tail the highest consumer of fish oil. He concluded by noting that demand for marine ingredients will likely continue to grow, with general transition from live bait to aquafeed.  

Status of Asian shrimp aquaculture

Moving to the shrimp sector in  Asia, Dr Olivier Decamp, R&D Director and Business Development Director for Health at INVE Aquaculture, stated that Global shrimp production, dominated by P. vannamei, continues to grow despite challenges. While Asia saw it’s first annual decline in shrimp production (2023-24), caused by rising feed costs, disease outbreaks, and shifting trade policies, there are now signs of recovery signs in countries such as India and Vietnam, with the latter investing in technology. Ecuador has seen increasing growth over the last 5 years, with other leading producing including China and India.

Decamp explored the challenges facing the industry, such as antibiotic use (predominately an issue in Asia), continuing rises in aquafeed costs and expected impacts from the US tariffs going forward. To remain resilient and competitive, he recommended that Asian producers must reassess farming methods and harvest targets, and improve sustainability through the implementation of certified, traceable, region-specific practices and new technologies throughout the production cycle, as seen in Ecuador. He concluded that 

“the industry needs to improve efficiencies in a sustainable way and farmers need to invest in early nutrition as part of cost benefit and disease prevention”.

Demand continues to grow in China

IFFO’s China Director Maggie Xu then presented her market update, noting that price reversion and decreased profitability have slowed down domestic marine ingredients production in China since 2024. Restricted availability of raw material whole fish has further reduced domestic output, with reduced catches.

However, tilapia processing volume continues to be stable at around 520,000 tonnes and the market for tilapia fillets have diversified, ensuring stability in by-products. By-products now account for 29% of fishmeal production. There was a sharp decline of imported sardines as raw material for marine ingredients production to an estimated 10,000 tonnes (2025).

For fish oil, by-products dominate production with 47%, but there was a general decrease in 2024 in production and export. For imports, Peru dominates both fishmeal (52%) and fish oil (45.8%) imports to China, with Russia imports reducing from 2023. Fish oil imports have been growing substantially too, following the price drop and rising demand by human consumption as well as pet food sectors. The decline in profits and prices led to clear reduction in feed grade fish oil export this year by China. Overall fish oil exports in 2025 may see a downturn, but fish oil consumption in 2025 is expected to grow in both feed and human consumption segments following the price retreats.

China’s aquaculture continues to grow, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the cumulative aquaculture output January to August  2025 was 3.66 million tonnes, up by 4.6% YoY. While offshore aquaculture showed great potential in the first quarter, it is facing challenges such as from high investment requirements and the use outdated technology. Looking forward, demand of marine ingredients is expected to increase with the growth of China’s aquaculture industry, and although inclusion rates in pig feed are reducing, a substantial rise in newborn piglets in 2025, will also drive future demand.

In terms of regulations, Xu highlight a change in MOA license, with a new MARA requirement on the names of manufacturer, applicant company and product in Chinese characters on the Feed and Feed Additive Registration License(i.e., MOA license).

International shipping: investing to reduce risk

Providing an analyses on global supply chains, Thue Barfod, Global Director of the Fish and Seafood Vertical at A.P. Moller-Maersk, stated that while 

“disruption has always been part of supply chain life, we are currently facing the most disrupted business landscape in a generation. As business and politics grow increasingly intertwined, decisions made in one region quickly reverberate worldwide”.  

Barfod added that impacts are now happening more frequently, with wars changing trade routes, human error disruption and increasing uncertainty with trade tariffs, all of which increases shipping costs.

Barfod noted that Maersk has invested in engineering, digital, analytical and service expertise, plus deep customer insights to build their ocean network to deliver reliability, global reach and speed via efficiency and optimisation. Additional new gate way ports is also increasing efficiency, with an ecosystem of trade lanes and transhipment hubs to ensure the flow of goods, redirection around the Cape of Good Hope has added to shipping costs but has reduced risk and improved trade arrivals.

How IFFO drives systemic change

IFFO’s Technical Director Dr Brett Glencross and Communications Director Véronique Jamin presented an overview of how technical research and communications work hand in hand. Jamin opened by noting that over the past decade there has been a shifting narrative from focus on a traditional approach to feed ingredients, to now a focus on responsible sourcing. IFFO’s role in the Global Roundtable on Marine Ingredients has helped drive positive change, bringing stakeholders together to address environmental and social challenges in key fisheries. In Mauritania and Senegal, the Roundtable has commissioned a Track the Fish report, analysing the human rights impacts that the industry is having, carried out by Partner Africa. Workshops have been key to driving progress, held in Mauritania and Ghana. The Roundtable is now calling for countries from the region to coordinate on shared stock management.

The Asia workstream’s focus is to increase availability of globally recognised marine ingredients to comply with global feed standards’ requirements: fishery improvement projects are underway in India, Thailand and Vietnam but their ongoing work needs to be amplified; furthermore, no marine ingredients facility in India can claim a MarinTrust certificate for responsible sourcing, traceability and production. The Global Roundtable on Marine Ingredients will soon launch a socio-economic study to better understand the marine ingredients landscape in India and barriers slowing down the uptake of certification.

Looking beyond carbon footprint

Discussing Life Cycle Impact Assessment, Glencross stated that 

“We need to move toward a more transparent assessment process as this will better support aquaculture to move forward by being able to assess the sustainability of the use of all feed ingredient resources on an equivalent basis.” 

He provided an overview of IFFO’s work with Global Feed Lifecycle Assessment Institute (GFLI) with their Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) database, a globally accessible, evolving animal feed ingredient database to support compliant, credible, and transparent environmental assessment of animal feed ingredients. Everything has a footprint somewhere and marine ingredients perform well mostly across the dataset.

Environmental impacts do not just occur on the production unit, they need to be tracked from raw material extraction (capture), processing, distribution, consumption/use, and waste disposal. Defining the extent (boundaries) of a system is critical, and IFFO has focused on a CRADLE-to-GATE (when it leaves ownership of producers) analysis of marine ingredient production.

Glencross noted that IFFO has mapped six different system boundaries and flows, due to the range of production flows, such as direct human consumption processing and then the use of the remaining by-products, which can involve secondary transfers for rendering. The challenge was to standardize the data in these different systems to 1 tonne of fish to ensure the data is usable.  

IFFO has created a primary data collection excel template for companies to then use, covering key data elements across three systems: processing, rendering, external storage, and transportation between them. This data is then fed into Simapro, allowing companies to map not just carbon foodprint, but also land use, ozone depletion, water use or even ecotoxicity, helping broaden the discussion on various ingredients. So far IFFO has collected 53 different product data sets across the global industry, comprising of 13 different types of fishmeals and fish oils.

Reports detailing the footprint of each product have already been delivered to all participants who have provided data. IFFO’s currently working with GFLI to progress the audit stage to update the Database in 2026. Glencross ended by saying there is still more work to do: “We always need more data!”  

An interactive survey was run at the end of the presentation about the use of byproducts in business activities. According to most of the respondents, by-products are either a core part of their operations or used occasionally. The following survey looked into emerging trends believed by the audience to most likely impact the marine ingredients sector in the next 5 years. A majority of the respondents cited regulatory changes and consumer demand for sustainability and traceability over other options such as precision nutrition, digitalisation and data-driven supply chains and additional ingredients.  

 Fish oil & Omega-3 markets

Looking at fish oil markets, Christian Meinich from Ch. Holtermann stated that markets have returned relatively back to normal after the impacts of El Ninõ in 2023/2024, but prices may increase in reaction to reduced quotas in Europe. The two-tier feed market of certified vs. non-certified oils remains in place but with reduced price gap at lower levels. There has been some predicted growth in demand, as well as in the supply of alternative sources of EPA and DHA. On the other hand, fish oils have produced sub-optimal fatty acid profiles both for the Omega3- and feed segments. This can to some extent be explained by natural fluctuations, but also in part reflect a backdrop of diverging growth developments between different species and global supply regions over the last years. Meinich concluded, that 

“with this backdrop, combined with a collective memory of considerable price fluctuations over the last years, the markets are now turning focus to the upcoming season in Peru with a cautious approach”.

GOED’s Vice President of Data Science, Aldo Bernasconi noted 

“that global EPA and DHA omega-3 industry continues to be a diverse, thriving market with global reach and a variety of sources feeding into a robust category backed by solid science”. 

The omega-3 ingredient industry is extremely reliant on a single source, which creates risk when there are inevitable supply disruptions and this can only be mitigated by increasing new and existing sources. While overview omega-3 ingredient demand did grow by 2.4% in 2024, with the fastest growing region being China, less dependent on anchoveta oil and has a fast-growing petfood market.  

Traditional 18/12 refined oils are being replaced by refined oils with a total of 30% omega-3, with less specific EPA to DHA ratios, which allows the industry some necessary flexibility. In the US, reduced crude oil supply and record fish oil prices in 2023 and 2024 resulted in increased reliance on alternative sources, changes in production practices and in the formulation of products sold. On tariffs Bernasconi noted that consumer interest doesn’t appear have been impacted so far, but they will likely impact who sells to whole and what products are on the market. In recent years, inflation has not slowed global demand, but continued inflation and economic uncertainty may make consumers less willing to make non-essential purchases.  

New methods to understand the role of Omega-3s

Looking to human health, Professor Richard P. Bazinet, Professor (Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto) presented his latest research on Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), looking at markers in the human brain to determine how much is needed and how the body processes it. In addition to obtaining DHA from fish, it can be synthesized in the liver from alpha‑linolenic acid (ALA), an 18‑carbon omega‑3 fatty acid that serves as a precursor. Bazinet added that it was recently found that dietary DHA can inhibit its own production from ALA. Building on this finding, a DHA dose‑response study was carried out in people who do not routinely consume DHA to identify the dose at which DHA begins to suppress its own synthesis from ALA—a potential marker of the amount of DHA that is needed. Bazinet concluded that the study showed that the adult brain has about 3.5 g of DHA and uptakes about 3.5 mg of DHA per day, and that DHA intake leads to an increase in EPA not just by retroconversion, but by inhibiting EPA elongation. DHA increases EPA levels at about ~220 mg/day, which could be a good marker for how much DHA we need.  

Discussions show a shifting narrative

Closing the conference, IFFO’s Director General Petter Johannessen summarized that  

“a recurring theme throughout our discussions has been the vital role of industry in supporting governmental efforts to implement effective fishery management measures. This aligns closely with IFFO’s long-standing commitment to responsible practices, and it is encouraging to see a growing consensus around the need for collaboration.

The narrative is indeed shifting. There is a clear recognition that addressing the global food challenge requires all of us—across sectors and geographies—to work together. Every feed ingredient has a role to play, and it is through realism and pragmatism that we will shape the sustainable food systems of tomorrow.”

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A new peer-reviewed paper published in Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture offers a deep analysis of how circular principles can be applied to ingredient selection for aquafeed formulation. The study, led by Dr Brett Glencross, IFFO’s Technical Director, along a team of seven renowned scientists and industry representatives, highlights the need for a more comprehensive and holistic approach to sustainable feed and food production.

The paper, titled Toward Applying a Circularity Framework Against the Use of Aquaculture Feed Ingredients by Brett Glencross, Dominique Bureau,Margareth Øverland,Cedric Simon,Luisa M. P. Valente,Erik Gracey &Kyla Zatti

is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2025.2552166.

The paper builds on the European Feed Manufacturers’ Federation (FEFAC)’s circularity framework, structured around four key pillars:

• Minimising the use of food-grade resources as feed
• Reducing reliance on land use
• Maximising the use of locally sourced ingredients
• Optimising the nutritional characteristics of feed ingredients

Lifecycle assessment methodologies: comparing apples with apples

Dr Glencross commented:

“One of the key drivers of circularity is the need to improve sustainability of feed ingredient use. This review demonstrates that a more comprehensive approach to sustainable feed and food production is possible, particularly through life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies. By applying a common, agreed set of rules, we can ensure that environmental burdens are not simply transferred from one product to another.”

LCA data shows that marine ingredients have a lower carbon footprint than many other ingredients, and reducing their inclusion increases the carbon footprint of aquafeeds.

Today’s aquafeeds are made from a combination of 40+ ingredients

The paper underscores that aquaculture feeds are now predominantly composed of plant-based raw materials. This shift has significantly reduced reliance on marine ingredients from 25% to 9% on average in the last two decades but has also linked global aquafeed production to the broader social and environmental impacts of agriculture, including increased biodiversity impacts and carbon emissions.

Today, over 40% of the raw material used for marine ingredient production come from fish by-products, which originate from both wild caught fish and aquaculture processing.  Growth in aquaculture will result in growth in marine ingredient production from by-products.

Imperative requirements for additional sources of circular feed ingredients

Circular feed ingredients are needed provided they follow a complete characterisation process, including digestibility, bioavailability, and consistency of supply. A general target for commercial use should be >10,000 tonnes availability with a consistent supply and nutrient composition. The authors noted.

“There is no point in producing a circular feed ingredient if its nutritional characteristics undermine the capacity to formulate a nutritious and balanced feed.”  

The paper also explores the potential of marine bioactive compounds derived from waste streams (such as bio-active peptides, fish silage, bio-active peptides, and marine osmolytes), which can enhance feed performance. They have been the subject of extensive research in the last 30 years for their content of “unknown growth factors”.

The publication calls for coordinated efforts and collaboration across the value chain.

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In the latest Rabobank Research article released on September 15, 2025, Hooked on scarcity: Navigating aquafeed nutrition amid looming marine ingredient shortages, author, Novel Sharma, Seafood Analyst noted that the aquaculture industry is facing growing demand for fishmeal and fish oil, driven by the expansion of high-value species and the adoption of more intensive farming practices. However, this rising demand is colliding with stagnant marine ingredient availability and increasing vulnerability to supply shocks -particularly those linked to climate change and recurring El Niño events.

From 2024 to 2033, the production of mid value and high value fed aquaculture species is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3%, resulting in an increase of approximately 12 million tonnes over the next decade (Figure 1). The current supply of commercial feed ingredients such as fishmeal and fish oil will be insufficient at current inclusion rates for this growth to materialise.

Higher demand inelasticity for fishmeal and fish oil
In recent years, supply disruptions have had a more pronounced impact on fishmeal and fish oil prices, as the narrowing supply-demand gap has made demand more inelastic. While supply tightening does not change the underlying elasticity of demand, it can magnify the effects of inelastic demand already present in aquaculture.

Fishmeal: Shortage to come sooner than expected
Looking ahead, fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade. Sharma said that the stagnating fishmeal supply and limited capacity to divert volume from other sectors could expose a shortage sooner than expected. As shortages deepen, demand inelasticity is likely to increase further, leading to greater price volatility and establishing higher price benchmarks during future supply shocks. Sharma said, 

“If Inclusion rates remain at recent levels, fed aquaculture demand is projected to grow by around 3% annually through 2033, adding 1.2 million to 1.3 million tonnes of fishmeal demand which is equivalent to about 25% of current global supply,”

Looking ahead to this decade, Rabobank Research conducted a scenario analysis to forecast the fishmeal supply demand gap in aquaculture, assuming feed inclusion rates remain consistent with recent years. The analysis shows that if aquaculture continues to use 90% of total fishmeal supply, as in 2023, a shortage is likely by 2028 (Figure 2). If aquaculture increases its share of fish meal, a shortage is even likely by the end of the decade.

Fish oil: Reduced availability for aquaculture

In the coming decade, fish oil faces most severe constraints, than fishmeal. While fishmeal consumption is mainly limited by supply growth, fish oil availability is increasingly strained by high prices and competition from industries with inelastic demand. Aquaculture currently uses about 65% to 70% of global fish oil, with salmon farming alone accounting for roughly 55%. To meet this demand, aquaculture would need around 200,000 tonnes of fish oil by 2033, assuming inclusion rates remain unchanged ( Figure 3)

Aquaculture demand has already exceeded available supply, and if aquaculture maintains a 65% share of this fish oil use, a shortfall of around 20,000 tonnes is likely in 2025. If aquaculture increases its share of global fish oil supply to 70% or 75%, a shortage remains inevitable and is likely to emerge sooner than expected, potentially as early as 2027. This underscores the growing urgency to address the growing demand supply imbalance.

Climate variability
Like any other natural feed ingredient, fishmeal and fish oil are highly dependent on climate conditions. As climate battles become more erratic the risk of further disruptions to the supply and the resulting price volatility is set to rise.

The report discussed the effects of warmer water during El Nino events. Peru supplies about 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil. For omega-3 fatty acids (EPA and DHA) its share rises to 25% to 30% due to the higher EPA and DHA content. During El Nino events, warmer waters suppress nutrient upwelling reducing plankton availability, the main food source for sardines, leading to biomass declines. Research indicates that global warming is intensifying both in frequency and severity of El Nino events.

Rising unpredictability
According to Sharma, historically fish meal prices closely mirror global supply trends. However, recently, the Peruvian fishmeal supply shock is expected to have a greater domino effect on prices.

“In more recent years, this dynamic began to shift as demand growth started to outpace supply, largely due to diminishing flexibility in further lowering inclusion rates in feeds. A drop in Peruvian output could push prices beyond USD2000/tonne, potentially setting a new benchmark.”

An inelastic point for fish oil and fishmeal
For years, the industry relied on flexible feed formulations to reduce fish oil inclusion rates, thus creating a buffer to absorb supply shocks and stabilise prices. As inclusion levels reach their practical minimum, this flexibility disappeared leaving the market more exposed to volatility.

Between 2018 and 2020, prices rose steadily- 12% in 2018 and 22% in 2020 -despite strong recoveries in both Peruvian and global supply. These developments suggest demand side rigidity rather and supply volatility alone was starting to shape price dynamics.

Proactive strategies and collaboration across value chain
To support sustainable growth, the aquaculture sector must adopt proactive strategies to secure access to essential feed ingredients. Novel feed sources will play a critical role –not merely as alternatives, but as essential components of future feed formulations. Embracing these innovations will be key to building resilience and ensuring long-term viability in a resource-constrained environment. Sharma concluded, 

“The core challenge is not in the cost of alternatives like algal oil or insect meal but in the growing volatility of traditional marine ingredients. This instability creates uncertainty for feed formulators and producers. Novel feed ingredients offer more stable pricing and dependable supply of essential nutrients. To build long term resilience, stronger collaboration across the value chain is essential,”

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IFFO’s 8th China Summit took place on 19th -20th June in Foshan city, China, with 148 delegates from 18 countries. IFFO’s China Director Maggie Xu opened the event by introducing the speakers and topics covered, starting with a global tour of marine ingredient markets, with IFFO’s Market Research Director Enrico Bachis setting the scene on global market with a special focus on Asia. Market updates were also provided on Peru, Chile, Thailand, and the USA before an update from GOED on global omega-3 supply and ending with a focus on fishmeal and fish oil demand in China.

IFFO’s Enrico Bachis presented an analysis of 2024 production data from Asia and globally. He noted that

-global supply of fishmeal and fish oil has remained consistent with average levels seen over the past decade.

-Asian countries provide between 30% to 35% of the fishmeal and fish oil produced worldwide, with growing intra-trade within the Asian region.

-In terms of raw material sourcing, by-products remain the key source in Asia, especially for fish oil production.

Bachis underscored the differences between Asia’s and particularly China’s production and consumption patterns compared to global trends, emphasizing how Asian nations will continue relying on international trade to meet their domestic needs for fishmeal and fish oil. He also highlighted the industry’s resilience in the face of significant environmental challenges.

Favourable condition in Peru in 2025

Presenting an update on the Peru marine ingredients supply and demand, Didier Saplana, COO at Austral Group, opened by stating that Peru has registered a strong recovery in 2024, with landings reaching 4.7 million tonnes and a fishmeal production exceeding 1 million tonnes.

The anchovy fishery is based on scientific management and a system of individual quotas allowing the preservation of an average healthy biomass of 9.2 million tons over the last 15 years.

Saplana noted that the industry has worked hard to reduce by-catch, which is well below the 5% annual limit, with 100% of the capture being landed and online control by Produce, ensuring a stable biomass. Favorable oceanographic conditions in the first semester of 2025 indicate a positive continuation in terms of an abundance and availability of anchovy during the 1st fishing season in the Center/North of Peru.

Imarpe, the Peruvian maritime institute in charge of monitoring the anchovy, has assessed a biomass of 10,92 million tonnes, an increase of 10% compared to the same period last year, allowing the Ministry of Production to set a 3 million tonnes quota.

He concluded by adding that the start of the first fishing season 2025 confirmed the availability of anchovy, as the Peruvian fleet captured 50% of the quota within the first 30 days, enabling an ample supply of fishmeal and fish oil to all markets; and that 70% of the quota has been fulfilled by the day of this event.

Chilean production and industry developments

Presenting an update on Chile, Jorge Bernales, the Commercial Director Fishing Division of Camanchaca S.A., spoke at the summit. Bernales mapped out the regulation and sustainability management structure in Chile, noting that the industry is regulated by the Chilean Sanitary Authority, Sernapesca, who manages annual quotas for each species, with Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) to prevent overfishing, and has real-time closures when juvenile fish are detected. The impacts of climate change are causing concerns for jack mackerel and sardine-anchovy stocks, with lower catches during El Niño years. He added that the industry is shifting towards sustainability and certification to meet EU and US market standards.

Bernales presented an update on Chile’s marine ingredient supply and demand, noting that landings were up by 53% in 2024 from 2023 due impacts from El Niño, and landings in 2025 are higher, with a total quota of 710,000 tons.

China and Southeast Asia (70%) are the main export markets for small pelagics fishmeal, followed by Japan and South Korea(20%), and exports to Europe (7%) in 2024. For fish oil, Europe remains the dominant market (83%), followed by China and Southeast Asia (14%) in 2024.

Thailand’s Fishmeal Industry

Moving to Thailand Kittipat Oerareemitr, Director of Thai Fishmeal Producers Association and Fishmeal Marketing Development, gave an update from Thailand’s largest fishmeal company. Introducing the industry, he noted that the Thai Fishmeal industry has evolved a great deal over the last 40 years. 14 facilities are certified under the Marin Trust programme (Main Factory Standard and Chain of Custody Standard), ensuring responsible sourcing, traceability and production, and four factories are accepted in the Marin Trust Improver programme as being part of a Fishery Improvement Project (FIP).

“Some 55% of the catch from the sea is for the human consumption, and about 30 to 35% is for the low value fish, which can go to both industry, which is fish soluble paste, and fishmeal industry. By-products contributes 58% of Thailand’s fishmeal production. We believe sustainability and stability are the true treasures we can leave for future generations, To meet global demands, we must continuously reform, such as with Fishery Improvement Projects (FIPs). This vision reflects Thailand’s proactive stance in aligning with international sustainability standards while maintaining its competitive edge in Asia’s fishmeal trade.” He said.

USA Fishmeal Supply 2025

Providing an update on US fishmeal supply, Jostein Rortveit, Director of American Seafood, noting that USA supply of fishmeal is mainly expected to be stable in 2025 compared to 2024. Alaska Pollock quota was up about 5% in 2025, while Hake was down 26%, with Rortveit adding that all though fishing for hake in 2024 was poor. Menhaden quota in Atlantic is stable and fishing volume in the Gulf is expected be stable in 2025.

Rortveit summarised that while China historically is an important market, the demand for white fishmeal is good in all markets in 2025 due to good catches of elver / baby eel in early 2025.

In the USA, the domestic market uses white fishmeal predominantly for petfood, due to fishmeal’s good nutritional profile and palatability. Fishing in Alaska during A-season in 2025 was normal and finished in early April. B-season starts in June and would end by September or October at the latest if fishing is as usual. Hake fishing is normally concentrated in May and September and October. In 2024, the hake fishing was poor, and quota reduced, and we will see how it goes for 2025.

Omega-3 market developments

GOED’s Managing Director Ellen Schutt then provided an overview of the EPA and DHA omega-3 market for the human nutrition space, including omega-3 applications. The uses of omega-3 in human nutrition are diverse, and include dietary supplements, pharmaceuticals, clinical nutrition, infant formula and food/beverage applications.

Omega-3 volume is expected to grow by 5% per year, with growth highest in the petfood and infant formula sectors. However, diversity of sources is very important, particularly given the supply chain challenges in 2023. Schutt presented some key issues impacting the market, such as China’s proposed fish oil standard (with ban above 70% concentration) and formulation changes.

Regarding tariffs, Schutt said that while they remain a concern, it is currently unclear whether they will impact demand.

China’s aquaculture and fishmeal markets

Moving back to China, Zhaogang Jiang, President of Evergreen International Trade, presented an update on the demand trends for fishmeal and chicken meal in China’s aquafeed sector. Meanwhile, focusing on Evergreen’s industrial structure of “six fishes, three shrimps, and one frog”, his presentation delved into the special aquaculture models and their development trends in the ready-to-cook food industry, along with the company’s move to expand their global presence.

Regarding China fishery output, Jiang noted that output in 2023 was 71.16 million tonnes, including marine, freshwater aquaculture and capture fisheries.

Freshwater farmed fish species are both rich and diverse and the past decade the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook has documented 25 farmed species. Among these, six species have an annual production exceeding one million tonnes, including carp (multiple varieties), and tilapia. Additionally, there are 11 species with annual outputs ranging between 100,000 tonnes and 1 million tonnes, including Wuchang bream, snakehead, largemouth black bass, and a variety of catfish and eel.

Regarding farmed shrimp, Jiang noted that there has been much volatility and change in this sector. Finally, marine fish farming has a rich diversity of species in China with production over the last decade of large yellow croaker, seabass, grouper, and seabream has grown rapidly.

Regarding fishmeal, China is one of the largest consumer, with 2-2.5 million tonnes; 1.9 million tonnes of fishmeal imported in 2024 and 2 million tonnes is expected to be imported in 2025, predominantly from Peru and Chile.

Jiang added that domestic fishmeal output is 400,000-600,000 tonnes annually, mainly from wild captures along the coastline and by-products from processing.

The use of chicken meal in aquafeed production is growing, with chicken meal production rising 10% annually to 600,000-700,000 tonnes per year.

Recent tariffs are expected to decrease imports from the USA, further driving domestic growth of chicken meal.

China’s booming fish oil market

The final speaker was Kevin Ransbotyn, General Manager of Alliance Nutrition Group, who provided an analysis of the expanding omega-3 sector in China, highlighting key trends, consumer behaviours, and business opportunities.

Starting with petfood,  Ransbotyn summarised that China’s pet care market, valued at $41.7 billion (2024), allocates 52.8% of expenditure to pet food, with omega-3 products gaining traction.

The petfood  fish oil segment is projected to grow to $134 million by 2025, driven by demand for skin, coat, and joint health solutions. Ransbotyn also quoted a survey showing that more than 94% of pet owners are willing to pay for pet nutrition including fish oil.

Growth is also increasing in dietary supplements, with domestic health food market reaching $73 million (2024), and omega-3 supplements leading e-commerce growth at 26% YoY.  Government initiatives like Healthy China 2030 and an aging population (3 billion seniors by 2025) are further propelling demand.

In the e-commerce market in 2024, fish oil products had growth rate as high as 26% in the first quarter, ranking first in the nutritional and healthy products and keeping growing in the past 12 months. This demand is driving innovation, focusing on concentration, oxidation stability and enhanced bioavailability, catering to premiumization trends.

Looking ahead

During the fruitful discussion after the presentations, Saplana added that he is optimistic about the climatic and oceanographic conditions in Peru, and it is likely that the fishing quota of 900,000 tonnes will be fished. In terms of challenges facing the industry, both Bachis and Schutt noted that additional feed ingredients can help meet the growing demand for EPA and DHA.

However, production has increased in 2024 and  Jiang added that a 20% of increase for fishmeal consumption in feed was expected in 2025 in China. From last year, he said, China’s fishmeal consumption is growing, despite the declining demand, which means that the leading production companies are using more fishmeal in feed formulations to improve performance.

In Chile, Bernales noted that there is a consumption change with jack mackerel in Chile, with more going to direct human consumption for its high nutritional value, reducing the production of fishmeal for the eel market.

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In a  new review article, published in Aquaculture, authored by researchers Kiranpreet Kaur from Aker QRILL Company and Dr. Silvia Torrecillas, with support from the Institute of Agrifood Research and Technology (IRTA), explores the impact of krill-based ingredients on a range of non salmonid species, including sea bream, seabass, tilapia, and olive flounder.

As aquaculture continues to diversify beyond salmon, this review evaluates how krill meal and krill oil can support fish health and growth even in low fishmeal and fish oil diets.

With growing demand for sustainable seafood and press mounting on wild fish stocks, the aquaculture industry is increasingly seeking efficient and effective feed ingredients that balance performance, cost, and sustainability. Krill has emerged as one such tool.

Dr. Silvia Torrecillas, co-author of the review, said, 

“Krill meal offers a unique combination of highly digestible protein, phospholipid-bound omega-3s, and functional compounds like astaxanthin and chitin. This makes it particularly valuable in diets for marine fish that are sensitive to changes in the feed formulation.”

Enhancing feed intake, growth, and feed conversion

The review highlights strong evidence from multiple species showing that krill supplementation consistently improves feed intake, weight gain, and feed conversion ratio (FCR). In some studies, juvenile fish fed krill meal grew up to 30% faster, with FCR improvements of up to 17% compared to control groups. This effect is largely attributed to krill’s palatability and nutrient bioavailability –even at low inclusion levels.

Kiranpreet Kaur, Director R&D Aquaculture at Aker QRILL Company and co-author of the review, said, 

“Across many aquaculture species, we see improvements in not just growth but also in protein and lipid effciency ratios, with is critical for feed optimization,” 

Functional benefits for gut health and resilience
In addition to performance, krill meal supports gut integrity and liver health, especially under stress or when diets are low in fishmeal or fish oil. The review points to improved gut morphology, reduced hepatic fat accumulation, and stronger mucosal protection, all linked to krill’s phospholipids, omega-3s, and choline content. Several studies also show improved immune responses and stress resilience, including higher survival rates under crowding or pathogen exposure.

Kaur added, 

“Krill-based diets are shown to help fish better tolerate stressful environments and support a stronger immune system. This is a major benefit in commercial production settings.”

Maintaining fillet quality and reproductive performance
Fillet composition and nutritional value are naturally important factors for consumers. The review found that krill inclusion helps maintain EPA and DHA levels in fillets ensuring the end product remains a rich source of omega-3s. In broodstock diets, krill also supports better egg quality, hatchability, and larval viability across species such as red sea bream, Nile tilapia, and tongue sole. 

A small ingredient with a big impact
As aquaculture continues to grow and diversify, the review concludes that krill meal and krill oil can play a key role in enabling more sustainable, resilient feed formulations for different fish species.

The article, titled “Review: Impact of krill products on the growth, health, and fillet quality of farmed
non-salmonid fish”, was authored by Kiranpreet Kaur and Silvia Torrecillas and is available in Aquaculture, volume 608, 30 September 2025:

Impact of krill products on the growth, health, and fillet quality of farmed non-salmonid fish – ScienceDirect

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Precision nutrition is a key practice in modern livestock production. It is the cutting-edge approach to provide the animals with the exact nutrients required for optimal growth, health, and productivity. It also leverages with the right balance of nutrients at the right time. Where are we with precision nutrition in fish farming? The challenge is the number of species, the environment fish are farmed in (freshwater, brackish water, and seawater), culture models (ponds, tanks, cages, and controlled systems) and density. There are many permutations.

A session at TARS 2024 on Finfish Aquaculture, covered a good start towards a framework on precision nutrition for fish farming as addressing this is critical towards developing species-specific feeds for improved efficiency and at all life cycle stages. Four presentations set the stage, starting with information on standardised processes for ingredient assessments. Another industry demand is reducing cost/kg fish produced which requires nutritional modulation for better feed efficiency and for health intervention to increase survival rates.

“Precision nutrition requires understanding the dietary needs of different animal sizes and essential nutrients. It is important to manage diet palatability and sensory perception in fish to enable some capacity to manage their feed intake.” Brett Glencross

It all starts with the right approach to ingredient assessment  “The evolution of ingredient assessment: a feed is still only as good as its ingredients,” said Dr Brett Glencross, Research Director at IFFO and Honorary Professor at the University of Stirling, Scotland.

He discussed the evolving strategies for ingredient assessment in feed formulation, noting that modern diets focus more on nutrients than ingredients. As such, ingredient assessment also needs to increase its objectivity in line with those demands. Precision nutrition requires understanding the dietary needs of different animal sizes and essential nutrients. It is important to manage diet palatability and sensory perception in fish to enable some capacity to manage their feed intake. Diet formulation involves two information sets: understanding the animal’s needs to design the feed, and knowing the ingredients, their constraints and how to manage them.

“We focus on nutrients – not ingredients, and how to manage them effectively,” said Glencross. “With modern diets, we aim for precision nutrition, focussing on digestible energy (DE) and digestible protein (DP) rather than crude measurements. It is this digestible supply that impacts performance.”

He emphasised the importance of understanding how requirements change with fish growth stages and animal sizes. “Without this knowledge, precision approaches are impossible. We know that requirements change with fish size, so we need to accommodate this in our formulations. Furthermore, formulating based on crude nutrients alone is inadequate without understanding digestibility.”

Glencross outlined a structured four-step approach for ingredient assessment ensuring a thorough evaluation of each ingredient’s value and suitability for inclusion in animal feed. The stages are:
Characterisation: This stage involves identifying and documenting the fundamental properties and composition of the ingredient. TDS or technical data sheets are commonly used at this stage, to provide detailed information about the ingredient’s characteristics. This stage is often a desk- top based preliminary evaluation.
Digestibility and palatability: This stage is an evaluation on how well the ingredient can be digested and its appeal to animals. Digestibility measures the proportion of the ingredient’s nutrients that can be absorbed, while palatability assesses the likelihood of the animals consuming the ingredient.
Utilisation and growth: This stage investigates the effectiveness of the ingredient in supporting the growth and overall health of the animals. It includes studying the ingredient’s impact on growth rates and other performance metrics.
Omics responses, immunological responses, meat quality, and functionality: This final phase is largely the ancillary studies that may add value when added to steps 1 to 3. It aims to examine the broader biological responses to the ingredient, including omics responses such as changes in gene expression (transcriptomics), and metabolites (metabolomics), and immune system reactions, as well as the quality of the meat produced and the functionality of the ingredient within the diet.

More details are available here: The power of nutrition for the industry in Asia, Aqua Culture Asia Pacific, January/ February 2023, pages 38-41.

Glencross concluded that all ingredients have strengths and weaknesses, and the key is to find the complementarity among them. Sustainability and the environmental footprint of feed ingredients are also becoming increasingly important. In many cases these criteria are now included in the stage 1 characterisation step.

The science of taste
In the nutrition process, intake is the number one driver of variation in performance. Sofia Morais, Innovation AQUA Team Leader at Lucta S.A., Spain, explained how taste impacts aquaculture productivity and its application in creating effective fish feed. She highlighted, “It is important to note that food recognition in fish involves the identification of nutrients rather than specific ingredients. Fish possess many unique, special, and highly developed sensory systems.”

Three of these systems are directly involved in feed intake: smell, taste, and solitary chemosensory cells (SCCs). These systems use chemical signals to help fish locate food sources, with taste being key in the final decision to consume food.

Olfaction, or smell, and SCCs are the first to respond in the feeding behaviour process. They are the long- distance sensing systems which the fish uses to detect the food far away and to orientate itself towards it. Taste is the only sensory system that is exclusively used for feeding. It is a short-distance sensing system which finally determines consumption.

Taste modalities in vertebrates help identify food quality, guiding dietary choices. There are five taste modalities (Figure 1). Morais explained that bitter compounds often signal toxicity, sour indicates microbial degradation and spoilage and warns the fish that the source of food is no longer fresh. Umami and sweet receptors detect vital nutrients like amino acids and carbohydrates.

Morais stated that taste sensing continues after feed ingestion in fish, involving enteroendocrine cells (EECs) along the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). These receptors play a crucial role in sensing food chemostimulants as they travel through the GIT, regulating satiety, gut transit, digestion and absorption.

Stimulants that attract or make food palatable usually have low molecular weights, such as free amino acids and small peptides. These water-soluble substances disperse easily and are found in high concentrations in attractive foods (or ingredients). They leach from pellets, signalling food to animals. Mixtures of these stimulants in specific combinations are more effective than single compounds.

Taste preference varies by species. Recently, fishmeal has been reduced in diets, causing palatability issues. To achieve positive feeding cues, formulators are now using specialty ingredients like hydrolysates and krill meal, and additives, rich in stimulants.

Sensory additives can be applied to enhance the palatability of feeds with reduced fishmeal levels. The supplementation with a palatability enhancer (PE) had a significant positive impact in specific growth rate, feed intake and feed conversion, as shown in a barramundi trial in Thailand. The performance of the control diet containing only 15% fishmeal was suboptimal, despite being reinforced with krill and squid meal.

More details: Taste matters: Exploring the fish gustatory system for overcoming aquaculture challenges by Morais, S., 2025. Aqua Culture Asia Pacific, January/February 2025, pages 25-29.

These additives may become useful tools for nutritionists in developing future aquafeed formulations with emerging ingredients. For example, single cell proteins, fermentation products of various waste streams, or insect meals are often not recognised as food or are avoided by many farmed species.

“Umami and sweet receptors detect vital nutrients like amino acids and carbohydrates”
– Sofia Morais

Finally, Morais stated that using specialty ingredients and additives, boosts feed intake and efficiency, thus enhancing profitability. Reducing feed waste also supports sustainability in aquaculture.

A molecular perspective on astaxanthin in finfish aquaculture

While astaxanthin is vital for pigmentation, it also plays key roles in reproductive fitness, overall survival, and as an antioxidant, it reduces oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in fish, according to Dr KP Chan, Regional Technical Team Lead for Vitamins & Carotenoids, Asia Pacific, BASF Animal Nutrition. Carotenoids differ by their oxygen molecules; astaxanthin’s four oxygen molecules dictate its chromophoric and antioxidant properties.

Chan described the metabolic characteristics of carotenoids. Red carps convert lutein/zeaxanthin to astaxanthin and store it, while seabream cannot convert beta-carotene and require a dietary source. Astaxanthin is used in integument for aesthetics and reproduction, and in the liver for cellular functions and antioxidation; it is also vital for ovary development, fertilisation, hatching, larval growth, and egg quality.
Focussing on stressors in fish, Chan described how astaxanthin works in stress management.

“Its molecular structure allows it to intercalate into the lipid bilayer very effectively and sequester the reactive oxygen species (ROS). A study by Qiang et al. (2022) demonstrated that fish fed with 150mg/kg feed astaxanthin exhibited considerable enhancements in terms of growth, feed utilisation, as well as viscerosomatic and hepatosomatic indices.”

In terms of dosage, as shown with the tilapia, an inclusion rate of 150mg/kg feed produced optimal performance for the tilapia. “Beyond this level, we see that the performance equals that of the negative control meaning that the astaxanthin functions as a pro-oxidant i.e. it induces oxidative stress. It becomes a metabolic load for the fish and affects the performance of the fish. For shrimp pigmentation, dosage depends on farming conditions, stress, growth and feed. There is no fixed rule but typically around 50-100ppm.”

Why micro-encapsulate astaxanthin?
The compound has a large molecular weight close to 600mg and in the native form, is crystalline. “Nothing is going to happen if fed as crystalline astaxanthin since it is not soluble in water and in itself, is very susceptible to oxidation. We need to convert this from a crystalline into an amorphous form, breaking them into smaller particles and microencapsulate.”

“Overall, the choice of astaxanthin formulation can determine its effectiveness in enhancing pigmentation, growth, and reproductive performance in aquaculture species”.
– KP Chan

Micro-encapsulation of astaxanthin improves its stability, bioavailability, and ease of handling, making it more effective in aquafeeds. It improves bioavailability, ease of handling and allows for rapid dispersibility in cold water which is ideal for post-pelleting liquid applications (PPLA).

Two technologies stabilise astaxanthin through microencapsulation. Beadlet technology traps finely dispersed astaxanthin in a solid matrix like silica, making the beadlets stable and dust-free for extreme processing. Granulation technology creates cold water dispersible granules, suitable for post-pelleting liquid applications and quick dispersal in water. Both methods aim to improve the stability, bioavailability, and handling of astaxanthin in aquafeeds.

Chan noted that synthetic astaxanthin deposits more in fish muscle than natural astaxanthin, suggesting that it is more effective for enhancing pigmentation. Although effective, natural astaxanthin shows lower deposition levels when used at the same dosage.

Overall, the choice of astaxanthin formulation can determine its effectiveness in enhancing pigmentation, growth, and reproductive performance in aquaculture species.

Feed additives to reduce mortality in tilapia farming
“Indonesia’s farmed tilapia faces challenges from stress and diseases. High stocking densities over 200 fish/m² increase stress and disease susceptibility, impacting productivity and profitability,” said Abung Simanjuntak, Technical Expert Manager – Aqua Region Greater APAC, dsm-firmenich. Stress also arises from handling, transportation, disease treatment, and feeding regime.

To mitigate these challenges, it is crucial to focus on controllable aspects such as genetics, feed, and farming methods while adopting sustainable practices and innovative solutions. The targets are higher survival rates (current averages are 60-70%), fast growth and feed efficiency, considering, the uncontrollable aspects, diseases, and the environment. In feeds, use of more plant meals brings in another dimension as these meals have 10-45% indigestible fractions.

Abung discussed how essential oils at different dosages and combinations of organic acids reduce mortality. “When the feed is enhanced with organic acid, there are added benefits such as increases in feed efficacy. Exogenous enzymes increase nutrient utilisation and improve the digestibility of the raw material. Phytase reduces the phosphorus in the environment as well as in the feed formulation. The overall effects are lower nitrogen in the water environment, less eutrophication and harmful algal bloom (HAB). Ultimately, in high density tilapia farming, we reduce the pathogen load.”

“The use of more plant meals brings in another dimension as these meals have 10-45% indigestible fractions”. – Abung Simanjuntak

However, Abung cautioned that it is important to understand the challenges within the whole farm ecosystem. “Our feedback from tilapia farms show benefits from feeds supplemented with feed additives go hand in hand with farm practices. For example, we need to find the best dosage of additives in the different farming systems (cages or flow through systems) to see any benefits.”

More on palatability
Dr Romi Novriadi from Jakarta Technical University of Fisheries moderated the panel and Q&A. Piet Vertstraete, Managing Director of 4SEA Consulting in Thailand, emphasised the significance of palatability in marine fish feed formulations. He discussed stabilising feed composition during raw material changes and using palatants to improve feed intake under stress or to enhance performance.

Vertstraete explained that one example is the initial feeding after transferring fish from the hatchery to grow- out cages. Palatants are frequently used during stressful conditions or when there is a need to produce larger fish to meet market demands.

Palatability enhancer and disease mitigation
Morais explained that it is hard to simulate experimentally
the role of palatability enhancers during disease outbreaks. “When fish face mortality and pathogens, they often stop feeding as their metabolism prioritises survival. Diseases exploit stress, and prolonged or repeated stress can cause immunodepression in fish. At this critical stage, improving feed and energy intake levels is essential for coping with stress.”

She noted that farmers are aware of the conditions that lead to the development of pathogens and often use functional feeds or add their own functional ingredients to feed. These functional compounds, such as phytogenics, may be bitter and unfamiliar to the fish. This situation can result in reduced appetite and an adverse response to the feeds. While it is possible to enhance palatability at this critical point, proving its effectiveness might be challenging.

Vertstraete gave an example of marine fish farming in the Mediterranean with an overwintering cycle. When temperatures drop, digestion, the immune system and membrane fluidity are affected, and fish eat less. At the same time, opportunistic bacteria get a chance to challenge the fish. “Using functional ingredients and palatants can encourage fish to eat and stay healthy, even if they don’t grow much,” he said.

Measuring palatability
Several methods exist, such as adding palatants to feeds and evaluating performance on lab scale. Verstraete noted that the real test is feeding under farm conditions and evaluate feed intake. A robust software system can track various cages under different conditions and formulations based on lab trials. This is efficiently implemented in large fish farming companies. Powerful information systems can connect feed formulations and ingredient choice to farm performance.

For Abung, it is important to test in both controlled and uncontrolled environments. “After testing, we focus on environmental factors and actions. It is essential to understand both factors. We should know the differences between uncontrollable environmental factors and controllable aspects. The decision based on these tests will be made accordingly.” Many factors influence palatability, sinking rate, and pellet quality. Chan said, “I prefer to evaluate feed performance (FCR) and growth under each condition to see what works best for the farm.”

Morais highlighted the difficulty in gathering data to support perceptions, especially on farms. “Creating experimental models is nearly impossible, even in labs. Evaluating fish feeding behaviour is complex compared to shrimp, which feeds slowly. Few consider attractability when feeding fish. Fish typically eat quickly, focussing mainly on total feed intake is a rough measure of palatability.”

She added that underwater cameras and AI aid precision feeding by detecting fish hunger. This is effective in clear waters but difficult in low visibility conditions, such as in tilapia or pangasius farming.

Glencross explained that measuring palatability involves making nutrition adjustments, which can introduce inaccuracies. The goal is to find the least disruptive path, typically involving nutrition adjustments.

“On methodology, I would combine palatability and digestibility. For digestibility assessment, there is an acclimation period and feed intake is measured each day to assess the response of the animal. There are two key drivers controlling appetite – the hedonic response (seconds, minutes, hours) and the homeostatic response (days). When doing the digestibility study, acclimating for 2 weeks, we pick up hedonic responses which is relevant in terms of palatability.”

Digestible protein
Formulating diets based on digestible protein (DP) rather than crude protein (CP) means that the CP value is higher. According to Glencross, “Formulating on DP basis is crucial as DP is what really matters, not CP. While CP can vary within a range, there is a specific DP:DE ratio that must be maintained for optimal growth. In formulations, DP can derive from various sources.”

Vertstraete added that formulation is on DP and digestible amino acids which the animal needs for optimal growth. However, labels on bags still require CP values as per registered specifications. “But by selecting the most digestible ingredients, you narrow that gap between digestible and crude protein,” said Verstraete.

The article was published in Issue March April 2025. 

The post Precision nutrition, palatability to health intervention at TARS 2024 appeared first on Aqua Culture Asia Pacific.

Low feed demand as farmers react to low fish/shrimp farmgate prices

By AAP 

Aquafeed production volumes in Asia Pacific were lower in 2023, as reported in the Alltech Global Agrifood Outlook 2024. It was 35.7 million tonnes as compared to 38.42 million tonnes in 2022. In China, 2023 volumes were lower by 10%. However, data for 2023 from the Thai Feed Mill Association suggested a 6% increase to 512,000 tonnes of shrimp feeds but volumes were lower for fish feeds.

According to data, collected by the Aquaculture Department, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), Indonesia, total aquafeed production declined marginally to 1.7 million tonnes for 2023.

In Vietnam, production of shrimp feeds increased 3% but there were mixed reports on volumes of fish feeds. In Malaysia, less shrimp feeds was used but there was a large increase in demand for marine fish feeds for seabass and milkfish farming (Table 1).

Low prices high input costs

Throughout Asia, the same situation reverberates –with low prices for final products and high input cost, shrimp and fish farmers are rethinking their farming strategy.

B. Ravikumar, Growel Feeds, said, “In India, shrimp farmers opted to reduce stocking of ponds, perhaps 5 out of 10 ponds and keeping to 30 PL/m². Additionally, they take a gap after a disease outbreak in a pond. In late 2023 until early 2024, we had more outbreaks of RMS and WSSV. Other strategies included harvesting smaller sizes at 100/kg, delaying stocking while waiting for better prices to restock or in low saline farming areas, it was shifting to farming fish in shrimp ponds. With low farmgate prices, fish farmers shifted to cheaper farm-made feeds.”

In China, the historic low prices for largemouth bass, down to USD3.00/kg in Foshan (Guangdong Province), coupled with high pond rental costs and costly feed prompted many farmers to reconsider restocking and farming (Zhang, 2023).

The export value of Vietnamâ€s pangasius fell 30% and even at good farmgate prices of VND28,500/kg (USD1.11), farmers were producing at cost with feed prices at VND14,500/kg (USD0.56), FCR at 1.6 and a high fish mortality rate up to 60%, due to the environment. Although prices were expected to increase with demand from China, farmers are downsizing, according to Vietfish magazine.

A contraction in feed consumption

In 2023, utilisation of freshwater feeds in China, mainly for the carps dropped by 15%. while those for marine fish and shrimp increased 10% and freshwater specialty feeds increased by more than 13%. The decline in consumption in China affected the production of five major aquafeed producers, all down to below the one million mark by a range of 0.3% to 23% (efeedlink.com).

At the Global Shrimp Forum 2023, Ramakanth Akula, The Waterbase, India expected a 15% decline in volumes of shrimp feeds in 2023, from the 1.35 million tonnes in 2022. Large integrated companies with feed operations and contract farmers were less affected. Vietnamâ€s Vinh Hoan, the largest pangasius integrator, restarted feed production in 2022.

In Indonesia, the contraction to 386,000 tonnes of shrimp feed is because of disease outbreaks and low farm gate prices.

The estimate on aquafeed production in 2022 for the Philippines was 120,000 tonnes of shrimp feed and 867,000 tonnes of fish feed, which included 520,000 tonnes of feeds for the milkfish and 347,000 tonnes for the tilapia (Aqua Culture Asia Pacific, May/June 2023). An industry source said that volumes were just lower by 1%. in 2023.

Aquafeed prices

Commodity and feed ingredient prices skyrocketed in 2022 forcing feed companies to raise feed prices by 20-30%. Figure 1 provides animal feed ingredient prices in Thailand from 2021-2024 to illustrate this surge. However, this changed in 2023. Soybean meal, corn and wheat prices eased by 25%, 30% and 24% respectively during the period January to December. Feed companies are normally behind the curve when it comes to raising prices and thus margins are squeezed as raw material prices can be as high as 90% of the net unit selling prices in shrimp feed.

Due to the start of El Niño, Peru was forced to close one fishing season as fish sizes were too small. Peru contributes to 30% of global fishmeal production and prices for the year was rangebound between USD1,780/tonne and USD1,880/tonne for 65% crude protein fishmeal. Feed companies were able to reduce feed prices unless they were heavily reliant on fishmeal as an ingredient.

Price Reductions

In AAPâ€s 2023 report, covering 2022 up to May 2023, feed millers in several countries detailed how they had to raise prices after absorbing the cost increases over the years 2021-2022. In Vietnam, the price of pangasius feed which contains soybean meal, wheat middlings, rice bran and tapioca was reduced by 8% in late 2023. There was no reduction in costs in India, but an industry source said farmers benefited via discounts. Haris Muhtadi, Shrimp Club Indonesia, said that in general, feed millers reduced shrimp feed prices by 7-10%.

While it is possible to reduce feed costs as feed mills in Vietnam have access to imported and local ingredients, a feed miller commented that local suppliers cannot guarantee there will be no antibiotics in their end products. This becomes an issue when looking for affordable, local fishmeal and fish oil. Another limitation for local sourcing is the need for feed to be ASC, BAP, Global GAP compliant. Naturally, these certifications always come with a premium on feed price.

Competitive edge

At country and at individual company level, it is well accepted that feed production is operating under capacity. In Vietnam, Jeff Chuang Jie Cheng, Sheng Long Bio-Tech said that their production is 60% of capacity.

“India has more than 35 large and medium size feed companies; the total capacity is 3.3 million tonnes and production was at 40%,” said Akula. Indonesiaâ€s Feedmills Association (GPMT) has 25 aquafeed mills registered. Deny Mulyono, Chairman Aqua Division said that their total capacity is 3.2 million tonnes/ year. There are 1,700 aquafeed producers in China in 2021. “The consolidation between Chinese aquafeed companies is not obvious,” said Yufan Zhang, Alltech China. “Since the total amount of aquafeeds in China has begun to decline, the competition has become more intense.”

In terms of market share, two market leaders, PT CP Prima and Japfa Comfeed share 40% of the shrimp feed market and 45% of the fish feed market in Indonesia. In India, the market leader, Avanti Feeds has 35% of the shrimp feed market. Therefore, the shrimp feed market is very competitive with around 12 local and multinational companies vying for the rest of the market.

Dealers play a major role in feed distribution in Asia. In Vietnam, Chuang said that dealers have become more discerning on credit terms. In India, dealers imposed stricter terms for credit. Feed millers themselves provide credit, some as long as 90 days with markups at 17%. The strength of the technical team is an important advantage. Chuang said, “We increased sales in 2023, with fish feeds at 330,000 tonnes and have 40% market share for tilapia and snakehead feeds. Despite a bad year for shrimp feeds with disease outbreaks, we improved sales and managed to have a 20% market share in the Mekong Delta and 35% in the central region. We have a strong sales and technical team of 500 staff.”

Outlook for 2024

There is an expectation that shrimp prices will remain low in 2024. Industry expects low production to continue in India and demand for feeds from leading feed companies will decline further in 2024.

Fish meal and fish oil supply is expected to remain low. In its update in May 2024, IFFO noted that in the first three months of 2024, global fishmeal production dropped by approximately 27% compared to the same period in 2023. The cumulative output of fish oil through March 2024 was 30% down y-o-y.

Aquafeed production capacity is expanding in Vietnam. In 2023, De Heus constructed a 240,000 tonnes factory dedicated to pangasius feed. Sheng Long will expand with another plant in May as it strives towards a production of one million tonnes of fish feeds and 300,000 tonnes of shrimp feeds in 5 years. In southern Vietnam, Chinaâ€s Yuehai Feeds Group has started construction of a 100,000 tonnes/year aquafeed plant. In Indonesia, PT Evergreen expanded with another feed mill in Java, with a production capacity of 200,000 tonnes of aquafeeds. Its first aquafeed mill is in Lampung, Sumatra.

Acknowledgements
This is a review on the aquafeed industry in Asia published annually. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to those mentioned in this article and other industry stakeholders who have willingly provided information but have requested to remain anonymous.

Published in May/June 2024 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific 

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