Global shrimp production was expected to rise in 2025 with key producers such as Ecuador leading growth, while Asia showed a modest increase with variations across countries. China’s output was  projected to decline due to disease and regulatory restrictions. The overall outlook points to expanding supply but highlights regional disparities and challenges.

Global production is up in 2025 Shrimp production in 2025, driven by Asia and Latin America, is expected to increase moderately compared to 2024. At Shrimp Summit 2025, held in June in Bali, Indonesia, the Kontali team predicted that vannamei shrimp production will rise to 5.84 million tonnes, reflecting a 6% growth from 5.5 million tonnes in 2024.

In October, at the Responsible Seafood Summit 2025 in Cartagena, Colombia, RaboResearch and the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA-Rabobank) presented results of the survey on global vannamei shrimp supply. Production is expected to grow only 2–3% in 2025 to 6.1 million tonnes. The survey reported a 4% increase in global supply of the black tiger shrimp led by Vietnam, China, India and Bangladesh.

A global view on supply from top producers
Growth forecasts on Ecuador’s production in 2025, included Gorjan Nikolik’s (RaboResearch) at 15%. At TARS 2025, held in Chiangmai Thailand, in August, it was an almost 18% indicative growth reaching 1.75 million tonnes, by Vitapro’s Pablo Montalbetti Gómez de la Torre. At the Global Shrimp Forum (GSF 2025) Sandro Coglitore, Omarsa clarified that 2024 was a flat year for Ecuador as it was in a consolidation process. Farms that had changed hands were brought back online and
resumed production in 2025. A notable surge in growth in 2025, is expected to continue into 2026. Numerous farms are still undergoing ownership changes, which will impact the industry’s dynamics Ecuador’s shrimp industry continues to be the “idol” with 3-phase models: low stocking density (relative to that in most of Asia), nursery systems and almost 4 cycles/year.  The news from Ecuador is that large farms buy up smaller farms, and they are increasing stocking density in low saline areas to 25-30 PL/m2 and even as high as 40 PL/m².

GSA-Rabobank had forecasted a 2% growth in Asian production for the year 2025. The general view is a declining production in Southeast Asia while India’s production is stagnant. Some trends suggested rising volumes for India (5.0%), lower volumes in Vietnam (-2%) and Thailand (-1%). GSA-Rabobank expected no growth in Indonesia and volumes to remain at 350,000 tonnes.

Below are some shared perspectives by local industry stakeholders regarding the situation with both vannamei and black tiger shrimp in 2025. 

EHP and regulations restrict production in China
The China Statistical Yearbook reported a 2025 production of 2.37 million tonnes of vannamei shrimp. Amber Chen, Nutriera, China noted that 1.53 million tonnes were from saline systems and some 880,000 tonnes came from freshwater farming. Several industry players provided lower estimates. FuCi Guo, MSD Animal Health suggested around 1.7 million tonnes of shrimp production and vannamei accounted for 88%. Most domestic shrimp are consumed domestically and generally of smaller size. Farmers adjust their plans and shift to alternative species, based on price signals and import surges, said Louis Zhou, HuaXin Food Group, at GSF 2025.

Industry also expect lower volumes in 2025 compared to 2024, due to stricter regulations on groundwater use and wastewater discharge enforced by both local and central authorities, slow down in local government investment in  greenhouses and Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) outbreaks. Guo said intensive farming in small greenhouses emerged as the main strategy for increasing production but lately small greenhouse farms in Jiangsu and Shandong have closed. Back in 2024, 450,000 of these 0.4ha greenhouses, were expected to contribute 450,000 tonnes/year.

Managing EHP well in India
A recent 2025 Society of Aquaculture Professionals (SAP) crop review reported production rising to 1.05 million tonnes, with 989,000 tonnes of vannamei and 60,500 tonnes of black tiger shrimp, according to SAP President Saji Chacko. During a SAP session at World Aquaculture 2025 India in November, higher output was anticipated in all regions, especially the
west and north at 10-15%.

There have been production improvements over the past three years due to changes in stocking density. Multiple partial harvests—from shrimp size 100/kg down to 60, 40 and finally 20/kg —have boosted farmer profits, with some achieving three cycles annually. Nursery rearing also contributed to these gains. EHP was a persistent issue for over three years, but Indian farmers reportedly managed it in 2025, through crop cycle adjustments and selecting suitable post larvae from various broodstock lines, according to Ganesh Moorthy, CP India. With multiple genetic lines now available, farmers are eager to verify the specific line of purchased post larvae (balanced, fast, or hardy).

In southern India, some farms start with a vannamei crop, followed by black tiger and then a vannamei crop again. Almost 30-40% of farms achieve five crops in two years. The stocking density for vannamei shrimp was 40- 60PL/m2.

A priority in India is building its domestic market. Since processors prefer to focus on exports and offer little support, farmers are creating their own local fresh markets at the district level. According to Ganesh, domestic consumption has grown.

TPD, disease and high costs in Vietnam

The feed industry in Vietnam was clear that there was a gradual recovery compared to the prior year in vannamei shrimp production, but estimates on volumes differed from 470,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Export vs domestic market ratio is 70:30. The domestic sector remains significant for risk-averse farmers, absorbing fresh and mid-size shrimp grades with greater price volatility.

In the first quarter 2025, translucent post larvae disease (TPD) posed significant challenges at the hatchery and grow-out stages, according to Chewen Wei, Uni-President Vietnam Co Ltd. “Farmers lost confidence, which led to delayed pond stocking and lower stocking densities. Stocking activities gradually normalised from April. These Q1 delays affected overall annual production,” said Wei. “Persistent disease and environmental issues discouraged pond restocking,” said Ton That De, Viet Uc at GSF 2025. He added that lower farming success rates with survival rates down to 50% were attributed to higher density farming practices. With these risks, together with other challenges and rising costs, some have opted for fast growth genetic lines to harvest as fast as possible. In the Mekong Delta, structural transformation occurred in 2025, reported Wei. These included improved pond infrastructure, enhanced water treatment systems, advanced management practices, and risk segmentation strategies. Both farming success rates and production stability improved in key areas. Ton estimated that soon the ratio of small farms: large farms will shift to 70:30 from the current 90:10. 

Continuous low volumes in Thailand
Official data from the Department of Fisheries (DOF) showed a 0.7% decline for vannamei shrimp production to 232,807 tonnes. Industry sources gave a higher estimate of 380,000 tonnes.

“Flooding in the south caused crop losses of 10–30 tonnes per farm, while cold weather in central Thailand brought down temperatures to 23-24°C and led to white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) and yellow head virus (YHV) outbreaks and reduced feed intake,”

said Soraphat Panakorn, President, Thailand Aquaculture Business Association (TABA). 

Indonesia: Pushing boundaries
As production fell in Q4 2025, a 25-30% decrease was projected for 2025 to only 230,000-245,000 tonnes. Haris Muhtadi, CJ Feed & Care, Indonesia cited EHP and AHPND as major causes of decline in farm productivity. He added that for some farmers, the key problem was high stocking densities. In Indonesia, low density is <80 PL/m2; median 80-150 PL/m2 and high >150 PL/m2 (Shrimp Outlook, 2025). In East Java, farm output improved when farmers lowered stocking density by 10-15%. They improved water quality by extending water supply intake lines from 400-500m to 1,000m.

At Shrimp Summit 2025, Haris stressed how over the last ten years, farms managed cash flow with several partial harvests, starting from 60 days until the final harvest at 115-120 days. To maintain carrying capacity, intensive farms may have 3-5 of partial harvests, periodically or when dissolved oxygen goes below 4ppm and biomass is 300-400kg/HP. “We are “pushing the environment” which is not sustainable,” said Haris. New farming areas in the eastern part of the archipelago are being exploited when areas in Sumatra and Java are exhausted, allowing for yields of 50-60 tonnes/ha/crop in new farms as compared to 20 tonnes/ha/crop in the older farms

Veering towards farming black tiger shrimp
The GSA-Rabobank Summit Survey 2025 noted that “Asian farmers are switching back to black tiger shrimp in search of better prices and farm profitability”. Data showed an increase of 4% to around 650,000 tonnes, led by Vietnam at 200,000 tonnes. McIntosh gave estimates of only 538,000 tonnes for 2025 (Table 2).

“In India, black tiger shrimp output has been rising and can be expected to increase in 2026,” said Ganesh. Driving India’s black tiger farming revival are broodstock from Unibio (Madagascar) and Moana (USA) as well as the locally developed Nicobar line by RGCA- Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Aquaculture. CP India is using this local line to produce 150 million PL in 2025, and targets 400 million PL in 2026. Recently, Unibio has emerged as a leading producer, with around 2.4 billion PL in 2025. It is expected to produce 3.0 billion PL in 2026. The stocking density was 7-10PL/m² rising to 20PL/m². In October, farmgate prices in Andhra Pradesh, India, for size 30/kg vannamei shrimp was USD4.71/kg versus USD5.5/kg for black tiger shrimp.

Thailand’s 2025 production of black tiger shrimp rose by 23.4% to 19,589 tonnes (DOF, 2025), as vannamei farmers struggled with challenges on choosing suitable genetic lines and reliable post larvae quality, prompting many to switch species. In 2025, Malaysia’s total production was 42,000 tonnes at 60:40 vannamei: blacktiger shrimp. As farmers faced issues with vannamei post larvae, many shifted to farming the black tiger shrimp.

Farmgate prices

In 2025, Vietnam led with the highest farmgate prices for size 60/kg vannamei shrimp. There was, however, extreme volatility, linked to supply issues. At year-end, Vietnam had the highest USD price per kg at 4.84,followed by India (3.87), Ecuador (3.09), and Indonesia(3.04, Figure 1).According to industry, farmgate prices reflected production dynamics arising from disease outbreaks. Due to price differences, Shrimp Insights reported that YTD September, India exported 50,500 tonnes to Vietnam, likely for reprocessing. Indonesia already had the lowest farmgate prices and in August, the caesium-137debacle, lowered these further, from USD3.97/kg toUSD2.89-3.04/kg. JALA also reported lower prices(USD2.43-2.55/kg) since October.

Reactions on tariffs and recent market uncertainties Aside from exporting head-on, shell-on (HOSO) shrimp to China, Ecuador’s processors are taking advantage of its low US tariffs (10%) to capture the peeled products market. In July, value added accounted for 31% of exports to date, compared to 28% for the whole of 2024,up from 20% of exports in 2021 (Montalbetti, 2025).The US is Indonesia’s largest and most important market. At the Shrimp Aquaculture Conference 2025(SAC), a panel noted that the industry is not ready to export to the EU because of the latter’s focus on sustainability. By end 2025, Indonesia had pivoted 10% of exports to China (Shrimp Insights 2025). While exports to the US declined by 43%, India increased its exports to China (+33%) and to the EU (+58%). Value addition increased 27%. (Chacko, 2025).

Outlook for 2026: Uncertain for Asian producers

The prospects for Asian shrimp producers in 2026 remainun certain and highly variable across the region. An industry source expects Indonesia’s production to exceed 300,000tonnes if PT Bahari Makmur Sejati (BMS Foods), the Indonesian food processor which was flagged by the USFDA for Cs137 contaminated shrimp exports, resumes operations in early 2026.

India has reached a production milestone of one million tonnes, according to SAP. However, India must focus on increasing domestic consumption, which currently stands at just 100,000 tonnes, with a target to reach 30% of total production by 2030.

India and Indonesia have a major regulatory hurdle. Both countries are not in the approved list regarding the control on antibiotic use under the EU Regulation (2023/905).This requires all exporting countries to be in the list by 3September 2026. Failure to be included on this list will block exports of animal-origin products, including shrimp and fish, to the EU.

Vietnamese exporters must contend with a new non-tariff barrier in the EU and UK. From 2026, major retailers will require stricter animal welfare standards. Specifically, shrimp must be completely stunned, typically through electrical methods, prior to ice immersion—replacing the traditional cold-shock approach. Leading UK retailers such as Tesco, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury’s, and Waitrose have already integrated these requirements into their procurement policies, making compliance essential for maintaining approved supplier status.

After 13 years of stagnant production, the Thai Shrimp Association has urged the government to declare a ‘National Agenda’ – recovery of the shrimp industry and to target 400,000 tonnes in 2026. Thailand’s shrimp production peaked at 600,000 tonnes in 2011 but dropped by half in 2013 due to early mortality syndrome (EMS) or AHPND outbreaks.

Ekapoj Yodpinit, president of the association has two objectives. An opportunity for Thai shrimp to capture the US market from India, since Thailand’s tariff is only19% as compared to India’s 58%. Accelerating free trade agreements with the EU, UK and Korea could recover 60,000 tonnes of lost export after Thailand lost privileges under the Generalised System of Preferences(GSP) in the EU in 2015 and recently in 2020 in the US.

In summary, 2026 will present a complex and evolving environment for Asian shrimp producers, shaped by stagnant or uneven production growth, uncertainties with tariffs, shifting export strategies, and increasingly stringent regulatory requirements in key markets.

Reference Shrimp Insights (2025).https://www.shrimpinsights.com/price-portal

January/February 2026 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific Page 26-29

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At TARS 2025 on Shrimp Aquaculture in Chiang Mai, Thailand, industry leaders from Asia and Latin America dissected the shrimp sector, from genetics and production systems to governance and welfare. How does Asia’s shrimp value chain compare to that of Latin America’s far more consolidated model? It was an analysis of the value chain and overcoming shrimp aquaculture dysfunction in Asia.

Ronnie Tan, Aquaculture Consultant at the US Grains and Bioproducts Council and moderator of this Hard Talk, arranged a live simulation of the shrimp value chain with a five-member panel. They were Ravi Kumar Yellanki, Managing Director, Vaisakhi Bio-Marine Pvt Ltd, India, representing genetics and hatcheries; William R. Kramer, Managing Consultant, CCM Agri Aqua Ventures Corp, HP Aquafarm Inc, Philippines, representing the farming segment; feed millers Dr Preecha Ekatumasuit, CEO, TRF Feed Mill Co Ltd, Thailand and Henrik Aarestrup, Vice President, LATAM, Shrimp & Hatchery, BioMar Group, Denmark; and Christopher Tan, Director, Mida Trade Ventures Pte Ltd, Singapore, representing the processor–buyer segment.

“We developed this as some people argue that the value chain in Asia is weak because of our fragmented nature,” clarified Ronnie on why he took this line of thought.

What makes good quality post larvae?
In the debate between nurture versus nature, which matters more to produce high-quality post larvae: genetics or hatchery practices? Ravi Kumar did not pick a side. “Both,” he said. Genetics “forms the foundation,” shaping performance from hatchery to processing. When all is equal, hatchery practices make or break that potential along the value chain.

“Disease-free broodstock, feeding post larvae well, and suppressing Vibrio loads are critical. If hatcheries fail to control Vibrio, they simply pass the inoculum downstream.”

Operational discipline matters. Large hatcheries must stock, sell post larvae, and complete cycles; a modular approach or periodic shutdowns reset Vibrio contamination. The goal is maintaining disease-free status, controlling bacteria, and ensuring robust post larvae.

Ronnie noted that farmers often blame genetics when they are disappointed with post larvae quality. Ravi Kumar pushed back, arguing that while genetic companies can deliver disease-free broodstock and desired traits, “beyond that, there is no role for genetic companies,” as hatchery practices determine outcomes.

From the farmer’s perspective, William framed it as “50–50” once husbandry takes over in the open and highly variable farm environment. On the compensation gimmicks by hatcheries (providing as much as 100% extra post larvae), William objects to offers of bonus post larvae to compensate for weak ones, preferring instead to plan around a realistic 15–20% survival allowance. “What matters to me is headcount in the pond, not freebies.”

Push for shrimp welfare with non-ablation practices
The practice of no eyestalk ablation in shrimp farming is increasingly becoming a certification requirement due to evolving animal welfare standards. Christopher gave his take from a buyer’s perspective.

“We have a clear line here. The high-end European retailers often impose non-eyestalk ablation production on welfare grounds. However, 95% of the commodity market is not so easily persuaded on non-ablation.”

Are buyers willing to pay more? “No,” added Christopher. “The cost must land somewhere else in the value chain.”

Technically, Ravi Kumar said that there are some advantages to non-ablation of vannamei shrimp broodstock.

“We can run without ablation for lines with strong reproductive efficiency. But not with the monodon shrimp, at least for now.”

He added that even within vannamei shrimp, low-reproduction lines still require ablation to achieve mating frequency and nauplii volumes.

“When non-ablation works, output equalises by the second month; mating percentages catch up, and broodstock can remain productive longer, up to 5 months from the 3.5 months with ablation practices. Hatchery survival rates seem better with post larvae from non-ablated broodstock.” He added that although field evidence suggests that post larvae from non-ablated broodstock are robust, it would be necessary to compare data on the field performance of post larvae from the same batch of broodstock, half of them ablated and the other half non-ablated.

On costs, Ravi Kumar said,

“There is no extra cost for non-ablated vannamei, provided the broodstock is from lines with good reproductive efficiency. For weaker lines, costs rise, which forces hatcheries to revert to ablation.”

Which to stock: PL10-12 or PL35 juveniles?
Ronnie sought feedback comparing Asia and Ecuador. Is there a cost advantage in using PL12 versus PL35 juveniles? As a farmer in the Philippines, William said, Personally given the conditions at our farm, we prefer stocking PL10-12 in our nursery or mother ponds at a maximum of 900PL/m2). We start transferring juveniles starting at 23 to 30 days of culture to respective grow-out ponds at densities of 130 to 150/m2. Our ponds average 1,300m2.”

Henrik described the Ecuadorian approach. There is an entirely different practice, linked with integration. Despite stereotypes, PL35 is not a hatchery product; it is farm reared. “In Ecuador, PL35 is part of the farm, not sold by hatcheries. Most transactions are still for PL10–PL12, but consolidation is pulling hatcheries into integrated groups. Big farmers are owning hatcheries and genetics. Therefore, published “market prices” are blurred within intra-group transfers.”

The panel discussed whether nurseries are part of the farm or standalone. Preecha explained the changes in Thailand. “Today, small farms increasingly coordinate with hatcheries to produce larger post larvae (PL17–PL18). Farms with more ‘modern operations’ ask for PL35–PL40 or so-called “jumbo” post larvae around 0.5g. Standalone nurseries flourished five years ago but have struggled. They have seen lower survival rates as post larvae sizes increase, while feed needs climbed and transport costs increased.”

In Thailand, size, and distance complicate matters. A truck transporting 300,000 small post larvae can take only 30,000-50,000 jumbo post larvae. At the farm, stocking is usually at 300,000-400,000PL, which needs 10 trips for the truck. “Therefore, for many Thai farmers, PL12 remains the norm,” said Preecha.

Integration and the salmon lesson
Henrik spoke on Ecuador’s semi-integration model. He described this as more of a “joint venture,” where feed millers have agreements with large producers.

“Similar to that in the salmon industry, they will split feed contracts into major, medium, and minority suppliers in order to have negotiating leverage and not depend on just one large feed miller.”

He cautioned that full vertical integration has its downsides.

“You can only negotiate with yourself; you must finance raw materials on top of production and absorb operational risks. The trend reflects the salmon industry, where some integrated groups are even putting feed divisions up for sale, such as Mowi. I would say that the Ecuadorian model is satisfactory.”

Thailand is different, said Preecha.

“TRF is integrated into the shrimp processing system. The whole ecosystem (farming, feed production, and processing) acts as a “society” or “community.” The processor dictates their buying needs (size 50, 30/kg, etc.). This information is passed on to the farmers. We, as feed millers, liaise with farm associations and processors so that farmers plan harvests to meet the processors’ order books.”

Henrik added that Ecuador has a forward or downstream integration. “Farms are buying processing plants to get full control of scale for year-round retail supply. This has boosted traceability. With this advantage in hand, few big farmers want to integrate upstream into feed production.”

When the blame is on feeds
“Feed companies are usually blamed for poor shrimp growth performance,” Ronnie prompted. William responded, “First,B70% of the problem is in the farm. Poor management leads to overfeeding and low survival rates. Farms with best practices can deliver solid returns (ROI) even by using average quality feed.”

Henrik acknowledged that finger-pointing exists but backed a systematic approach at the farm. “Good farm management can even mask a weaker feed. Major customers consistently evaluate various feed suppliers and monitor performance benchmarks. This happens in the shrimp and salmon world.”

Preecha explained that when crops fail, farmers often blame poor post larvae, feed, disease, or climate change. However, he believes that competition among feed mills worldwide has improved feed quality. While feed is important, results depend on three factors: post larvae quality, feed quality, and farm management.

The promise of acoustic feeding
Ecuador has embraced acoustic feeding. AQ1, now part of BioMar, has among the best-known systems. However, acoustic feeding draws scepticism in Asia. Has it really improved the feed conversion ratio (FCR) and sped up cycles in Ecuador?

Henrik affirmed that gains come from the device, nutrition, and the management system it enables. “Together with improved genetics, farms moved from 2–3 cycles/year to 5 or even 6 cycles/year to produce small-size shrimp. However, this system requires large capital investment and strong organisations to roll out and utilise the technology. It is feasible in consolidated Ecuador but is much harder in fragmented Asia.”

Henrik said that by volume, the vast majority of Ecuador’s output comes from acoustic feeding practices. By hectares, there is still room to expand.

In India, Ravi Kumar sees the uptake of smart feeders “catching up,” despite high capital expenditure. Small ponds make manual feeding feasible. “Such technology saves feed by reducing FCR by ~0.2, and keeps pond bottoms cleaner, allowing for longer cycles to produce large-size shrimp. Timed dispensers are not that revolutionary, but acoustic systems really decouple from workforce reliance.”

Preecha concurred with Ravi Kumar. In Asia, small ponds, high stocking density, and environmental sounds complicate the use of sensors. However, he foresees that AI-assisted sound filtering, CCTV for shrimp behaviour monitoring, and integration with aerator telemetry will help.

William echoed on the Philippines’ lag. “Acoustic feeding is not considered partly because small, intensive ponds have “so much activity” inside and out.” Even so, he accepts the premise that FCR improvements of 0.2-0.3 are plausible.
Henrik reminded that algorithms already filter aeration and pond noise. AQ1 has even solved a bug where a stray sound mimicked clicks of shrimp mandibles.

Post-harvest: Great shrimp, mediocre chains
Some Asian farmers harvest high-quality shrimp, but post-harvest chains fail to preserve them. Can buyers shorten the chain?

Christopher responded that geography is a factor. Indonesia is a large archipelago, and farms with optimal conditions are on remote islands, where it is not feasible to site a processing plant. It takes 3-4 days for the harvest to reach processors.

“However, the irony is that almost 70-80% of global markets accept subpar shrimp. The US, the largest market for peeled shrimp, accepts heavily soaked shrimp. China’s vast dim sum segment values convenience over pristine texture; only Michelin-level niches demand the best quality. So, until the demand changes, supply chains have little incentive to upgrade.”

On the topic of soaking shrimp, Ravi Kumar stated that STPP (sodium tripolyphosphate) at about 5% is commonly used for soaking shrimp. Some buyers, especially in Europe, now prefer chemical-free or alternative “salt” cures.

“Unfortunately, in most markets, even Japan, there is demand for heavily soaked shrimp. European consumers tend to avoid STPP, while allowing for 20–30% glazing. Market preferences are reflected in their willingness to make cost-related decisions,” said Christopher.

Fragmentation as risk or resilience?
Over 70% of Asian shrimp production comes from small- and medium scale farms, while the same share in Ecuador comes from large groups. Is this a strength or a weakness?

Ravi Kumar noted, “In fragmented Asia, exporters often trade rather than own responsibility. Yet the advantage of smallholders is that they are resilient: when they fail, they recover fast. Big corporations, once down, struggle to pivot. His view is that Asia will be unable to integrate rapidly; therefore, collaboration across genetics, hatchery, feed, farm and processing is crucial.

Preecha added that small farms can time their production to China’s “golden periods” (four times a year). They tailor output to preferred colours and sizes and operate with tightly controlled labour costs. The main constraint, however, is financing—high capex tools such as acoustic feeders remain out of reach.

For William, Asia’s fragmentation benefits across more people in the value chain, but the continent’s geographic and operational variability makes standardisation hard, while offering multiple pathways to compete.
Henrik referred to market served. For local live or premium niche markets, small farmers can beat giants. For mass retail with year-round contracts, low cost and traceability, large integrated groups have the edge.

Christopher injected a buyer’s view that “integration must add value”. “Many farmers prefer the freedom to sell to the highest bidder, especially when disease tightens raw material supply and processors, with thousands of workers, must keep lines running. Unless integration improves farm income or risk, farmers will not rush into it.”

What can Ecuador learn from Asia?
This was an open discussion with participants. Henrik sees Ecuador on an intensification journey, while Asia offers a cautionary tale on carrying capacity and limitations on stress and disease. As intensity increase, feeds in Ecuador converge toward those in Asia. For Ravi Kumar, the farming systems are “as different as baseball and cricket,” i.e., huge, open ponds with all pathogen-exposed (APE) broodstock in Ecuador versus smaller, biosecure farms with disease-free stocks in Asia.

Hervé Lucien-Brun, Jefo Nutrition, France, flagged a systemic risk since about 85% of Ecuadorian farming is located on one estuary (Gulf of Guayas), and there has been no study on carrying capacity of water resources. 

Exceeding this could lead to a big crash, as white spot disease (WSD) once did. However, Andrés Rivadulla, BioMar, Ecuador, noted some large groups are already seeking new farming areas outside the gulf, a geographic diversification borrowed from Asia’s painful experience.

Pablo Montalbetti Gómez de la Torre, Vitapro – Alicorp Ecuador, believes that growth must come from intensification, not hectarage. The way is to increase density sustainably, detect early disease signals, and pace growth, despite the pressure to recoup investments.

How can Asian producers position themselves to compete with Ecuador? According to Christopher, there are paths like niche markets such as “live”, “cook-from from live,” certifications or efficiency. However, many niches come and go. “The biggest challenge for most Asian processors is raw-material price volatility. Owning ponds allows you to stabilise input costs, whereas buying externally leaves you at the market’s mercy.

“Still, seasonality creates windows. Ecuador can be uncompetitive, as during recent outbreaks (WSD drove a price spike), early in the year (February–March) and sometimes in August–September.” His recommendation is to focus on the cost curve and take advantage when these windows open.

Henrik’s 30-second postscript was, “Ecuador’s high labour cost leaves room for Asian processors in advanced value-added items. Competing head-on in whole and frozen is tough. In more complex consumer products, Asia’s lower labour costs can shine.”

This article was first published in Aqua Culture Asia Pacific January/February  page 22-25 

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From the editor

The top 10 salient points which includes AAP’s wish list for 2026

The global economic outlook shows resilient growth with Asia Pacific leading in stability while the US is showing a K-shaped growth i.e. diverging growth. The
EU will face uneven growth from its constituent countries. China, while still plagued by its weak property market, is expected to show robust manufacturing growth. 

How will this affect aquaculture and the prognosis for 2026? Here are the top 10 salient points which includes AAP’s wish list.

1. The global aquafeed demand is likely to show modest growth in 2025 and 2026 after a 4% decline in 2024 (Alltech Global Feed Survey) and this will be pushed by high value aquaculture species.

2. In terms of feed ingredients, fishmeal prices will remain firm while soybean meal and corn-based ingredients will be soft. This leads to stable feed prices while giving alternative ingredients breathing space as they benchmark their prices versus fishmeal. Furthermore, fishmeal supply is forecasted by Rabobank to be short as early as 2027.

3. Aquafeeds will be differentiated by its sustainability credentials starting in the EU and followed by the US. As part of the value chain, Asia Pacific is starting to adopt this via its exports to the EU market. The wish is for the shrimp sector to adopt more functional feeds as a tool to mitigate stress and disease challenges.

4. The shrimp trade still faces an oversupply risk due to a continued increase in Ecuador’s exports while tariffs in the US can cause price swings. China’s stagnant demand limits the upside potential. The shrimp sector must invest in productivity and move away from just cost saving. This requires a change in mindset and in Asia, it will be the next generation farmers leading this charge.

5. Asia must find the right balance in shrimp stocking density for ROI. Ecuador has low density culture and increases production through more cycles per year via nurseries and 3-phase farming. This strategy allows for increasing volumes without challenging the carrying capacity and risking disease outbreaks. Asia, on the other hand, has adopted partial harvesting to control biomass as shrimp gain in size. Here, it is the management of densities without challenging the carrying capacity during each cycle. These strategies are not mutually exclusive. So why not do both?

6. Another wish is for Asia to adopt better feeding systems. Unlike fish where one can observe feeding to satiation, over feeding is still common in shrimp. Excess feed is not only money lost but also increases sludge buildup and Vibrio levels, leading to disease risks again.

7. Marketing is still a weak link in the supply chain for both tilapia and pangasius. There are two distinct markets and sizes for tilapia, and the product must be fit for the local market or for export. The cold chain and post-harvest logistics are crucial for the local market while capability are critical for export. Vietnam’s pangasius supply chain is fine-tuned but still lacks marketing to move up the ‘white fish’ ladder. Conversely, Regal Springs has positioned tilapia into the British ‘fish and chips’ offering, ready for the anticipated drop in ground fish catches.

8. Finding the Asian salmon remains elusive. The Asian seabass (barramundi) does not have the economies of scale to attract investments. It is not feasible for a single country to have the competitive edge along the whole value chain. The better model is for various countries to work together, each focusing on its strength and specialising in a sector to develop an integrated ecosystem. Easier said than done?

9. Tariffs and the supply chain can alter global competitiveness and the markets. How will the front loading of imported stock in 2025 affect the carry-over to 2026 in the US? For shrimp, it is forecasted that a 10% increase in price to the consumer will result in a drop of 3.5% consumption in the following 12 months (GSF 2025).

10. Seafood is the largest traded food protein in the world because producing countries are not the consumers. China, India, and Southeast Asia together represent half of the world’s population. With increasing GDP per capita in these regions, developing the local market is the way to go. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, rapid changes are occurring in Asian consumer markets for food and beverages, spurred by rising incomes, urbanisation, and an expanding middle class. India is no longer seen as a vegetarian nation with low spending power. A small uptick in per capita shrimp consumption can create a large demand. 

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On August 21, the two-day 14th Aquaculture Roundtable Series (TARS) successfully concluded in Chiang Mai, Thailand. It brought together 284 participants, 93 of them from Thailand. This was the largest edition to date, with participants coming from 22 countries.

This seventh TARS on shrimp aquaculture centred around precision farming for higher productivity and profitability. It provided a platform to examine Asia’s shrimp industry at a critical turning point, marked by low prices, rising costs, frequent disease outbreaks, and falling productivity.

“It is imperative for farms and businesses to adopt smarter and more precise farming methods to remain competitive. At the same time, we are seeing how data tools, AI and automation are transforming how we manage water quality, disease prevention and feed optimisation,”

said Dr. Thitiporn Laoprasert, Deputy Director General, Department of Fisheries (DOF) during her opening address.

“Such innovations not only improve productivity but also ensure sustainability and long-term profitability.”

The program featured 10 sessions with 52 speakers, panellists and industry players navigating the multiple facets of Asia’s industry. TARS 2025 was organised by Aqua Culture Asia Pacific and Corporate Media Services, Singapore.
This year’s industry sponsors included dsm-firmenich, U.S. Grains Council, Jefo Nutrition, Auranta, Adisseo, ADM, SyAqua, Alltech, BioMar, Veramaris, Lucta, and Motiv.

TARS 2025 started with an assessment of the State of Global Shrimp Supply and Demand, and explored how Asia can better respond to shifting market needs (see pages 20-27). Participants learnt how Ecuador has a competitive shrimp industry by leveraging its professionalism, promoting investments and brand development. This showed that sustainable growth is possible through scale, innovation, and integration.

Ecuador’s success is not directly comparable since distinct geography, politics, and business environments shape its unique model. The lesson from Asian producers on intensification was that Ecuador should not push the limits of carrying capacity. The message was not to see Ecuador merely as a competitor, but to learn from its fundamentals in genetics, hatchery and nursery management and production planning.

Asia’s fragmented system, with 70% of production from small farms, limits cooperation. Meanwhile, Ecuador’s integrated model encourages collaboration between farmers and processors. At Hard Talk, business leaders along the value chain from genetics and hatcheries to farms and feeds in Asia and Latin America, and processing and marketing, discussed dysfunctions in Asian shrimp aquaculture. Members agreed that small farmers are resilient in the face of challenges and emphasised that greater collaboration, with added value tailored to target markets, is needed rather than full integration.

For the long-term sustainability of the industry, it is the second-generation farmers who are stepping up, forming strong peer networks to support one another and driving the transition from founder-led enterprises to modern, science-driven aquaculture businesses.

The “Pondside Chat” brought together second-generation shrimp industry leaders—Rizky Darmawan from Indonesia, Chodpipat Limlertwatee from Thailand, Hai Nguyen from Vietnam, and Mayank Sharma from India—for a dynamic dialogue on their farming practices.

The session on precision farming and production planning highlighted that disease-free broodstock and Vibrio control are non-negotiable. Genetics drives ~50% of performance, but hatchery management and the delivery of robust post larvae ultimately determine field success. Science-based SPF breeding programs remain the standard in Asia, despite Ecuador’s APE advances. Nursery systems enhance survival, inventory control, and profitability, but transfer logistics are critical. In Vietnam, Integrated systems are proving viable, with intensive, well-managed models demonstrating strong results.

In precision nutrition, the use of functional additives for gut health and immunity, as well as for health interventions, is effective. Awareness of the negative effects of mycotoxins and endotoxins in shrimp production is critical for feed efficiency. In terms of feed sustainability, fishmeal replacement with single-cell proteins and non-animal-based additives supports independence from marine ingredients in feeds.

Disease mitigation and control of transparent post larvae disease (TPD) in Vietnam require modular biosecurity to reduce spread and functional additives. Lessons on Vibrio control have also led to the use of functional additives to support gut health, microbiome, and immune modulation. While proven in salmon, adoption lags in Asia due to cost sensitivity. Early disease diagnostics, multi-pathogen management and lower stocking densities remain key to reducing disease risk.
The future-proofing session emphasised how retail downstream increasingly influences shrimp farming practices; focusing on provenance and health benefits. In securing post-harvest product quality, time and temperature control and an optimised supply chain, from producers to exporters, are critical.

For a sustainable feed strategy, priorities include lowering crude protein levels, shifting to byproducts/plant proteins, using novel inputs (insect and fermented meals) and pursuing certification.

There is an opportunity for growth with mathematical modelling to assess impacts of key factors, identify solutions, and formulate feeds to reduce marine ingredients and more sustainable protein/energy levels.
TARS 2025 also recognised the role of startups in advancing pond management, disease prevention, and climate adaptation—critical for farmers facing repeated crop failures.

Takeaways
The Interactive Roundtable Breakout session focused on “Future proofing: Precision shrimp aquaculture and the new deal”. Participants proposed key performance indicators (KPIs) and metrics for precision shrimp farming, reinforcing TARS’ hallmark of inclusive and solution-driven dialogue. Some takeaways are listed below.

Bespoke genetics and improved hatchery practices: A preferred combination of traits should be aligned with farming models (density, aeration level, salinity, etc). Emphasis is placed on traits for growth, robustness, and disease tolerance, with a KPI of over 70% survival after a challenge with various diseases. The metrics for female broodstock efficiency is 4 months and gravid ablation rates of 25-30%/day and gravid non-ablation rates of 15-20%/day.
Quality of post-larvae and juveniles: Recommended tests include those for antibiotics before stocking, PCR screening for pathogens at PL 5–7, size variation, and stricter stress tests leading to survival rates of 50–60%, rather than accepting an overall 90%.

Biosecurity and Vibrio control: These are vital for shrimp health. Broodstock must be healthy and pathogen-free, with regular audits and diagnostics. Bacteria load in water should be controlled at 103 CFU/mL. Probiotics and stringent testing protocols are recommended for Vibrio control. Fast-track disease monitoring and data collection on farming practices support future analysis and adaptation.

Stocking density and carrying capacity management:
Carrying capacity depends on infrastructure and pond aging. Maintaining biomass at 80% of capacity was suggested. Key metrics include maintaining dissolved oxygen levels above 5.5 ppm and proper aeration.

Waste control and management strategies: Critical for sustainable shrimp farming are probiotics and regular monitoring of water quality parameters. The target for feed conversion ratio (FCR) is less than 1.2, achievable through the adoption of advanced feed management practices such as acoustic feeding.

Monitoring growth metrics: Critical KPIs are average daily growth (ADG) at between 0.23-0.25g from PL12, an FCR of 1.2-1.5 and a survival rate (SR) of over 80% is expected at 100 days of culture.
Optimal size for profit margins: The best size is based on market conditions, management styles and profitability. In Thailand, optimal sizes include black tiger shrimp at size 8/kg and white leg shrimp at size 28/kg. Flexibility is advised based on circumstances.

Precision nutrition with digestible nutrients: It is not only nutrient digestibility and ratio of digestible protein: digestible energy but also to define digestibility according to age. Metrics are apparent digestibility coefficients, digestible protein, amino acids, energy, lipid and carbohydrates. Standardised digestibility metrics and measurement (in vitro assessment) are needed.

Shrimp feed formulation: With high-protein/high-cost versus low-protein/low-cost feeds, cost-effectiveness should be measured not only by cost of feeds but also by growth performance metrics such as FCR. Others are economic indicators (feed cost per kg gain) and environmental factors (nitrogen retention/excretion), survival rate and water quality.

Nutrient balance and feed quality: Digestible ingredients and alternative proteins support shrimp nutrition, while enzymes, acidifiers, and palatability enhancers improve digestion and absorption. Tailoring feed by life stage boosts growth, minimises environmental impact, and improves water quality.

Functional benefits: Functional feeds are formulated not only for growth but also to enhance immunity, stress resistance, gut health, and overall shrimp performance. Palatability remains essential. The non-specific immune system of shrimp can be improved.

Feed intake and palatability: The metrics include apparent feed intake, daily feed intake, and specific feeding rate rate. The best practice is to combine palatability, stability and digestibility.

Feed management: Real-time systems optimise feeding and monitor conditions. Acoustic monitors track shrimp response to reduce waste. Combining automated and manual feeding improves consistency and water quality.
Environmental sustainability: Balanced feed formulations improve feed utilisation and can reduce waste output. Overfeeding and excess nutrient discharge may require additional water treatments, which increase production costs and impact ecosystems.

Production planning for improved productivity: Farmers often produce and harvest simultaneously, creating volatility in supply and demand. Knowledge sharing is needed to improve sourcing of quality post larvae, feed, and best aquaculture practices. Greater transparency, traceability, value chain synchronisation, and regular (annual/quarterly) planning are essential.

Harvesting techniques & shrimp quality: Special pre-harvest feed improves shrimp quality, while rapid chilling methods such as ice killing reduces stress and maintains freshness. Strict control of post harvest time and temperature is essential for quality maintenance.

Measuring incoming shrimp quality: Quality control must address varied buyer standards and logistics. Using standard checklists, lab testing, feedback, and tracking key attributes—such as hepatopancreas, appearance, size, taste, and moisture—is vital. Efficient farm access and transport prevent delays that reduce shrimp quality.
Market-specific needs: This is to develop premium products with consistent taste and quality for the US; ensure an integrated supply chain for quality assurance and compliance for the EU; and offer convenient, Ready to Cook products for China.

Certification: Few feedmills are ASC-certified due to high costs and low farmer awareness. ASC should highlight certification benefits, connect certified farms and feedmills, and promote its tools for greenhouse gas measurement.
TARS.

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In May, the 2025 Alltech Agri-Food Outlook has revealed results of the 14th annual Alltech Global Feed Survey and the key trends that are shaping the future of industry, including technologies that are making a big impact, sustainability efforts and opportunities for growth. Extracts from the report, relevant for Asia Pacific and aquaculture are  presented below. For more details refer to the full report here. 

Major Trends Impacting Global Feed Production
Alltech’s 2024 feed survey identified several trends that impacted feed production and demand, including disease outbreaks, economic factors, the environment and changing consumer preferences.

Disease management and recovery
African swine fever (ASF) and HPAI made headlines around the world in 2024, impacting consumer buying patterns. The aquaculture and ruminant sectors also grappled with disease challenges that impacted production and reduced demand, including bluetongue and foot-and mouth disease.

Fortunately, many regions and sectors were able to rebound to end the year positively thanks to increased biosecurity measures, government regulations, and new import and trade opportunities.

The devastating impact of avian influenza
Every region of the world felt the impact of HPAI (also known as H5N1, highly pathogenic avian or bird flu) in 2024, primarily through the decimation of poultry flocks, disruptions in supply chains and subsequent price volatility in the animal protein markets.

North America was significantly impacted, particularly in the egg and turkey sectors. In Asia, countries like Japan and South Korea have faced repeated outbreaks that challenge their supply stability and necessitate large-scale flock reduction and an increased dependence on imports.

The economic implications of HPAI have been profound, not only leading to direct costs associated with culling and containment but also influencing global trade dynamics and protein pricing structures. 

Economic pressures and a changing geopolitical landscape

Nearly 50% of the respondents who contributed to the Agri- Food Outlook survey reported that consumer behaviour was most affected by the economy and protein product prices, which impact protein consumption habits and animal feed consumption.

Similarly, on the production side, costs also shaped global dynamics — but some markets were able to use that to their advantage. Feed production got a boost in Asia, Europe and Latin America due to the lower costs of corn and soy, and the North American broiler sector benefited from high beef prices. Exports helped drive growth in pork, beef and poultry feed production in Oceania, Europe and Brazil.

Shifting geopolitical and trade dynamics also played a major role. Uncertainties related to the trade relationship between the United States and China, for example, impacted those countries’ pork and soybean markets.

2024 Feed Tonnage by Region

This year’s global feed survey estimated that the total global feed tonnage increased 1.2% over 2023, an increase of 16.7 million tonnes to approximately 1.396 billion tonnes (Table 1). 

Asia-Pacific (533.1 million tonnes): Feed production was down slightly in the region (-0.8%), though Asia-Pacific remained the largest feed producer overall. The decrease was largely due to headwinds in China as well as ongoing weather extremes, oversupply, and cheap feed alternatives that hampered expansion.

Feed Tonnage by Sector

Aquaculture

Global feed production for the aquaculture sector declined slightly (by 1.1%), continuing a downward trend for the sector that first emerged in 2023. The statistics, however, conceals considerable regional divergence, including gains in Latin America, Africa and Europe  (Table 2).  

Unfortunately, the considerable decreases in Asia-Pacific and North America due to disease challenges, extreme weather events, cost pressures and low market prices weighed down the entire sector. Looking ahead, aquaculture is positioned to strengthen slowly, but the recovery will likely remain uneven across regions.

Potential rebounds in shrimp and finfish production in Asia-Pacific will depend on stabilized prices and biosecurity improvements Table 3). Latin America and Africa could continue their upward trajectories, and momentum around alternative feed ingredients in Europe is expected to pick up steam as regulatory frameworks and consumer demand increasingly emphasize sustainability.

• Africa and the Middle East: Aquafeed production experienced a 9.1% increase in Africa. Volumes remain small but more farmers are adopting commercial aquafeeds in their operations, and rising demand for lower-cost proteins also benefited the sector. Countries with rich coastal waters, such as Comoros, hold significant potential for the development of marine based industries — and a planned $10-million investment to expand capture fisheries in that country to meet the growing domestic demand illustrates the region’s commitment to aquaculture production. In the Middle East, aquafeed tonnage was down by 0.6% but the sector is still faring well, with growth opportunities identified in the United Arab Emirates as part of a push for increased food security. Global demand indicates that aquafeed production will continue to rise across Africa and the Middle East.
• Asia-Pacific: Persistent challenges led to an overall decrease of 1.7% in the production of aquafeed in Asia- Pacific, continuing the decrease for two consecutive years due to environmental challenges (like flooding and heat waves), disease outbreaks and economic pressures.  The region is still the largest aquaculture producer in the world. There were areas of growth for the region — like Vietnam, where aquafeed production grew by 3.3% due to an expanding international demand and technological advancements. Operational shifts, such as the move to cheaper feed alternatives and challenges with the broodstock supply, have further reduced the need for specialized feeds.  While the sector showed signs of recovery, these improvements have not yet been sufficient to restore stock levels to previous highs. As a result, the demand for aquafeed remains lower than in years past, contributing to a continued decline in feed production.

• Europe: Here the sector has demonstrated resilient growth over the past five years, with a 2.1% rise in feed production continuing that upward trend. This increase is underpinned by strategic adaptations to sustainability demands, technological advancements and market dynamics. Atlantic salmon, sea bass and sea bream — species with strong European production bases — are driving growth by commanding premium prices around the world. Additionally, lower aquafeed costs have eased margins for European producers. Looking ahead, structural challenges will test the sector’s ability to sustain growth, demanding continued innovation, improved biosecurity measures and policy alignment to secure resilience.
• Latin America: The Latin American aquaculture sector declined by 2.3% mainly due to new import tax regulations and declining shrimp feed usage in Ecuador. Despite those setbacks, other Latin American countries — like Chile and Peru — benefited from favourable biological conditions that helped boost aquaculture yields, including cooler water temperatures. Additionally, government incentives promoting aquaculture in countries like Brazil and Chile, including subsidies for feed production and support for export activities, could help drive recovery in the coming years. Looking ahead, demand for aquaculture products in Latin America is expected to remain robust. Industry growth, however, may depend on regulatory adjustments and cost efficiencies in key markets.

North America: Aquafeed tonnage fell by 3.7% in North America on the heels of multiple headwinds for the industry. Salmon producers were challenged by sea lice and winter sores, while shrimp production has reached an oversupply, limiting feed demand. Some producers scaled down due to weak margins, especially on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The industry is currently in a state of unease, as the largest shrimp farmer in the United States filed for bankruptcy in early 2025.

Many North American aquaculture producers are now weighing their path forward, knowing that future feed demand patterns will depend largely on industry-wide shifts in herd management, disease mitigation strategies, economic pressures and environmental factors.

Oceania: Aquafeed production experienced a high growth rate of 9.3% in Oceania due to the debut of new aquaculture operation sites and broadening species portfolios. Expansion has also been driven by government interest in the sector and by the market’s adjacency to Asia-Pacific.

What to Expect in 2025

In addition to the quantitative feed survey data, a qualitative survey drew insights from 82 countries on themes such as optimism for the future, anticipated challenges, and the factors expected to have the greatest impact in 2025.

Modest growth

Based on these insights and other forecasts, the global agri-food sector is expected to maintain modest growth in 2025, with the pace and distribution of that growth varying by region and species.

Regions that prioritize biosecurity, cost efficiency and sustainable innovation are expected to perform well, but regional dynamics — including disease outbreaks, sustainability regulations, and economic volatility — will likely continue to impact global feed production

Optimism by sector

Survey respondents reported being optimistic about the poultry sector, with varying levels of optimism across the other species sectors:

• Poultry: 67% expect positive growth for broiler and layer feeds
• Pet food: 60% anticipate growth, driven by global premiumization trends
• Aquaculture: 40% cautiously optimistic despite supply and environmental constraints
• Beef: 34% cautiously optimistic, with only 1% highly optimistic despite strong 2024 performance

Innovations for more efficient and sustainable production

Efforts to make agricultural production more efficient and environmentally friendly will continue to be prioritized across the world. These initiatives are driven largely by governments in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Latin America, while consumers were reported to be the main force behind sustainable change in North America, according to survey responses.

Enhanced feed production efficiency and sustainability are often dependent on innovative technologies and solutions — and that is sure to remain true in 2025. When asked which technologies are having the most impact on agriculture, respondents cited:

• New nutritional solutions (10.9%)
• Genetics (10.0%)
• Biosecurity (9.3%)
• Renewable energy technologies (9.0%)
• Biogas/anaerobic digestion (7.8%)
• Data collection and analysis (7.8%)
• Automation/robotics (7.2%)
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction technologies (4.6%)
• Soil health (3.8%)
• Aerial imagery/drone technology (3.3%)

Economic headwinds

Economic volatility is also a potential cause for concern, with input costs expected to rise in the European Union and tariffs making headlines in North America, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East will also likely affect prices and the global supply chain. With the geopolitical landscape currently evolving at breakneck speed, the economic repercussions for the agri-food industry remain difficult to forecast — but could very well be widespread and game-changing.

Aquaculture: Aquaculture production will likely vary by region. Modest growth is expected in Europe and select Latin American markets, driven by sustainable innovations and export demand, but Asia-Pacific will be sensitive to disease and weather risks and cost pressures in key markets. Continued innovation and government-driven initiatives will be necessary for the industry to remain resilient.

This annual survey conducted by Alltech, covered more than 27,000 feed mills​, 140 countries, data for every major species, key trends, challenges and opportunities. 
Interactive maps, data and downloadable resources.

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FAO has released the Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture (GSA). This was prepared at the request of Members in an inclusive, transparent and participatory manner under the guidance of the Sub-Committee on Aquaculture of the FAO Committee on Fisheries.

The GSA offer a comprehensive framework for the management and development of sustainable aquaculture and are designed to support Members and other stakeholders in the implementation of the 1995 Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries.

The GSA were created in response to the rapid expansion of aquaculture, the fastest-growing food production sector in the world, driven by scientific progress, technological innovations and investment, amid a consistently increasing global demand for aquatic foods.

However, as with all food production sectors, this rapid growth has exposed challenges to the sustainability of aquaculture and raised concerns about potential negative impacts. The GSA provide a comprehensive framework for addressing these challenges.

The Vision of the Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture (GSA) is of an aquaculture sector that contributes significantly to a world free from hunger and to the equitable improvement of the living standards of all actors in its value chain, including the poorest, and:

˃ advances towards more productive, efficient, resilient, climate-smart and socially and environmentally responsible agrifood systems

˃ fulfils its potential to meet the increasing demand for safe, healthy, accessible and affordable aquatic food and products with reduced impacts on the global environment

˃ contributes to sustainable development and helps to eradicate poverty, malnutrition and hunger; and matures in economically, socially and environmentally sustainable ways.

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dsm-firmenich the leading innovator in health, nutrition and beauty, has released the results of the World Mycotoxin Survey from January to December 2024. 

Mycotoxins are naturally produced by the fungi that can contaminate feed raw materials in the field and during storage. When ingested by animals, mycotoxins have a wide range of negative effects such as impaired reproduction, digestive disorders, carcinogenicity, and reduced performance.  

About the survey   

Each year since 2004, dsm-firmenich has analyzed a large number of feed samples from all around the world to understand and monitor contamination levels of the different mycotoxins in a variety of feed ingredients. This information is shared in the annual dsm-firmenich World Mycotoxin Survey.  The survey accurately identifies mycotoxin risks based on animal species and location. 

Effective mycotoxin risk management should include frequent testing along with a multi-strategy mitigation approach. 

The Results 

• Until December 2024, a total of 28,388 samples were collected and analyzed from 95 countries around the world. Compared to 2023, results concluded that all 6 main mycotoxins increased, including aflatoxin, zearalenone, vomitoxin, fumonisins, T-2 mycotoxin and ochratoxin A. 
• Risk increased in Central Europe, as well as in the Middle East and North Africacompared to 2023. Risk remains extreme with the highest regions of mycotoxins found in North and Central America, South Asia, China and Taiwan. 
• The mycotoxin risks that threaten feed quality and animal performance globally vary across regions worldwide, with multiple kinds of mycotoxins often occurring together.  

The survey also includes further details on: 

• Trends in mycotoxin occurrence over the years 
• Prevalence levels for each mycotoxin in each region 
• Global and local risk levels for each mycotoxin 
• Risk levels posed to each species 
• Comparison of prevalence levels from January-December 2023 
• Insights on mycotoxin levels in grains and soy from major producing countries 
• More information about Spectrum 380®, the most powerful mycotoxin detection method used as a research tool and performed at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) 
• Overview on the occurrence of the most frequent mycotoxins, their masked and modified forms as well as emerging mycotoxins; based on results delivered by the most comprehensive commercially available multi-mycotoxin method, Spectrum Top®50 

Additionally, a range of key by-products and alternative feed components were tested, analyzing metabolites found and their prevalence with numerous mycotoxins discovered. The global contamination of key by-products and alternative feed components is summarised in the dsm-firmenich Mycotoxin Survey. 

Ursula Hofstetter, Head of Mycotoxin Risk Management at dsm-firmenich Animal Nutrition & Health stated:

“The persistent presence of mycotoxins continues to pose a threat to animal welfare, productivity, and sustainability in agriculture. These results once again underscore the critical need for effective mycotoxin management strategies. Implementing such strategies is crucial for maintaining the profitability of both the feed industry and animal protein sectors as well as ensuring feed and food safety.” 

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As farmers struggle with low selling prices, there are consequences along the supply chain

By Yufan Zhang

The tilapia was introduced from Vietnam to Guangdong Province in 1957. Today, tilapia is the only exotic fish species to exceed 1 million tonnes. In 2018, its annual output reached 1.8 million tonnes, second only to grass carp, carp and crucian carp, which have been cultured in China for thousands of years. According to the China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook released in 2022, China produced 1.66 million tonnes of tilapia in 2021, surpassing slightly the 2020 production of 1.65 million tonnes.

In 2020, tilapia production in Guangdong reached 740,000 tonnes, accounting for 44% of the national total tilapia production. This could be because the tilapia came first to Guangdong and, coupled with suitable climate and convenient transportation, its production could easily reach this leading position in China.

The two towns of Tonghu and Lilin in Huizhou City, Guangdong Province, have always been the core areas of tilapia farming. Here, there are 2,000ha of fishponds, and the tilapia feed market capacity exceeds 40,000 tonnes. My first market research report was on the fisheries industry in these towns a decade ago. Apart from the bumpy road to the fishponds, a lot has changed.

One couple, 20ha

In the gazebo by the fishpond, 60-year-old farmer Luo and I chatted for a long time before seeing the fish. The sun was too strong at two oâ€clock, and he did not really want to feed the fish at that hour. “It is better to feed the fish later because the water temperature is too high.” He and his wife manage this 20-ha farm.

A 20ha farm is not a small area. If it is just a 2ha shrimp pond, the couple will be busier. This has to do with the fact that tilapia farming has become easier over the years. Tilapia used to be farmed twice a year or even “continuously harvested” following a complex schedule. But now, Huizhou fish farmers follow a single stocking and a single harvesting in a year. Last year, Luoâ€s unit production reached about 2.2 kg/m3, close to the average productivity level. “We cannot raise any more because we cannot sell them. Now, the booking of fish distributors to come and collect the fish often takes half a month, and then they are only willing to buy 2,000kg of fish. During this period, the biomass increases by another 2,000kg,” Luo added, “Some fish in my ponds are from last year and they are more than 3kg already.”

The difficulty with selling the fish also increases the feed conversion ratios (FCR). Over the past few years, the crude protein (CP) content of tilapia feeds has improved from 29% to 33%. If the fish is produced normally without the difficulty of selling, the feed conversion ratio (FCR) can be 1.1. But after keeping the fish in ponds for more than a year and finally selling the stock in the pond, FCR sometimes reaches 1.3-1.4. At present, tilapia feed costs around CNY6,000/tonne (USD841.98), which means that the feed cost is close to CNY8/kg (USD1.12). Then when labour, electricity, pond rental, fish packing and others are included, the production cost will be around CNY1-2/ kg while the selling price/kg of tilapia is about CNY9/kg (USD1.26).

Fortunately, based on the improvement of larvae quality and farming technology, the success rate of tilapia farming is high, at more than 90%. Streptococcus and enteritis are still chronic diseases, especially in the hot season. Once the water temperature is above 30°C, streptococcus outbreaks cause casualties. Many farmers currently use sulfonamides, the fastest way to control the disease. Although, this means a gradual increase in antibiotic resistance.

“For the fish that I sell to factories, I use more non- antibiotic solutions to treat diseases, such as mannan polysaccharides or plant extracts. However, the price of tilapia is very poor this year, and the price of healthcare farm products like immune stimulators is relatively high. When he knew I was writing an article for publication, Luo added the question, “Tilapia farming is hardly a profitable business. Is there a cheaper, non-antibiotic way to treat Streptococcus infections?”

Feed distributor for 20 years

“Luo is my client and he is right. It is difficult for tilapia farmers to make money right now,” said Huang, who has been a feed distributor for more than 20 years and everyone in the area knows his name. He went on to describe some challenges with selling prices.

Currently, there are two very mature marketing channels for tilapia in the market. The first is to sell to a processing plant. Last year, the processing plant bought 0.5-0.6kg fish at about CNY8.6/kg (USD1.20). Margins for the farmer were small, but it is still possible to be profitable with the right farm management. However, this year, due to reduced factory orders the offer price for fish of the same size dropped to CNY7.2/kg (USD1.01).

These prices barely cover feed costs. Farmers lose money for every kg of tilapia they sell to processing plants. The second channel is local markets and supermarkets. Last year, fish larger than 0.7kg could be sold to the local wet market at around CNY12.6/kg (USD1.76). The market requirement has been raised this year and only 0.75kg fish are collected. At the same time, the fish distributor requires that at least 30% of the tilapia in the pond is more than 1kg. But meanwhile, prices dropped to CNY10.6/kg (USD1.48).

“Distribution is so difficult now. You have to book one or two weeks in advance to sell the fish and the fish distributors are taking advantage of the situation.” Huang was also indignant. “But who else to sell it to? It is almost impossible to profit from selling it to a processor.”

Feed distributors and farmers are in the same boat, and when farmers struggle to make a profit, so do they. The number of tilapia farmers in the Lilin and Tonghu areas has decreased by 20% due to continued low profits. I saw many empty fishponds and houses on my way. But the amount of money lent out by feed distributors is increasing.

“Tilapia farmers are not rich. They borrow more than 90% of their feed costs from me. I do not get paid until they sell the fish,” said Huang. As we talked, a young man came over and bought two bags of feed. Huang added, “The debt lasts one year, and over 70% of them owe me over CNY200,000. Currently, the profit margin for distributing tilapia feed is only about 6-7%. We cannot afford to keep up with the debt. Since the beginning of this year, I have stopped giving feed credits to new clients. If they cannot pay cash, I can live without this business. For us and the farmers, this year will be a year of hardship; if the next year still looks like this, I do not know what to do with this business anymore”.

Feed salesmen and second jobs

In the evening, I had a tilapia hotpot with feed salesman Li, who I have known for several years. It is the least we can do for the tilapia industry. During the dinner, he asked me about other job opportunities. “My sales have dropped by more than 30% this year, but my target is still growing. I have not received any bonus for two or three years. Among my friends who entered the market with me, I am the last person holding on. They have either changed careers or are selling shrimp feed. Only shrimp farming is still profitable.” He wants things to change, but it does seem that the poor profitability of tilapia farming in recent years will not change anytime soon.

Recently, farming freshwater fish such as grass carp and common carp have not been profitable either. So, this is not just a problem for tilapia. Production is too overwhelming, exports are lacking, and domestic demand is not strong. These three factors contribute to the dilemma of many freshwater fish farmers.

Feed mills†profitability in fish feed production has been greatly affected. The net profit from one tonne of tilapia feed may not exceed CNY50. This is directly reflected in the feed salesmanâ€s wages. The target sales volume for each feed salesman, once from 5,000 tonnes/person/year, has increased to 10,000 tonnes/person/year. However, the strict KPI system makes feed sales fall instead of rising and increases personnel mobility. Some of the salesmen who did well have even started selling fish for farmers. They also help customers connect to fish distributors, to forge better relationships with customers.

Selling animal health products or farm packs is also a way to supplement their income. That is how we met. In addition to his feed business, he has also sold AQUATE, Alltechâ€s farm pack product for the past few years. This has helped him solve some problems on the farm.

Addressing Streptococcus infections

There are several reasons for frequent tilapia infections. Streptococcus may be the beginning, but in subsequent enteritis, ascites and other secondary symptoms, we often see a variety of pathogenic bacteria infections. Mannan oligosaccharides in Aquate have coagulative and inhibitory effects on various pathogens such as Streptococcus agalactiae and Aeromonas hydrophila.

In an experiment conducted at Kasetsart University, we found that red tilapia treated with AQUATE continuously, in response to challenge stress from Streptococcus and A. hydrophila, has significantly improved the survival rate (Guilherme de Souza Moura et al., 2012). The mechanism behind this also involves the repair of mucosal immune by AQUATE.

A study conducted in China found that feeding ACTIGEN, an important ingredient of Aquate, can repair the gill mucosa and intestinal mucosa of goldfish, and this can even stop the infection of a deadly parasite, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (Xiaoli Huang et al., 2022). This conclusion has been applied to many companies in China.

The practical application at an eel feed mill showed that the eel gut was significantly thickened, and the number of goblet cells visibly increased due to adding one kg/tonne of Aquate in the feed (Figure 1). Improving the structure of the intestine, as the organ with the largest contact area with the outside environment, will undoubtedly improve the disease resistance of aquatic animals (unpublished data).

A mainstream business

In Chinaâ€s aquaculture market, there are more than 70 commercial species. As one of the few global species, tilapia has a clearer process and pathway from breeding, growing, processing and marketing than many other species. It is correct to say that Chinese farmers can produce tilapia steadily now and in the foreseeable future.

Chinaâ€s tilapia industry is a main street business. Everyone knows their responsibility, and they have known it for years. However, the fish distributing problems faced by farmers, the cash-flow security problems faced by feed distributors, and the profitability problems faced by feed mills are all under unprecedented challenges due to some global problems, such as consumption recession and raw material costs. For a mature species and business model like tilapia, a few branches are off the main street to make a clever detour. The box has been there, so firmly, so certain for so long, making it very difficult to think “out of it”. There may be only two options, forward or backwards. One thing is for sure, it cannot continue like this.

The article was published in issue July/August 2024 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific

The post Tilapia in China: Easy to farm but harder to sell appeared first on Aqua Culture Asia Pacific.

In Suthi Mahalaoâ€s Boonsawang farm, the mark of success is when his seabass is accepted by Japanese chefs in Bangkok

The farm harvests 800g fish and will also harvest 5-6kg fish for special markets such as for the Ikejime preparation. Current farmgate prices are THB120kg (USD3.4) for live fish. For chilled fish, prices (in THB) are 80/kg for 400-600g fish; 90/kg for 700-800g fish; 80/kg for 900g-1kg fish; 70/kg for 1.2-2kg fish and 110/kg for 2.2- 3kg fish. The exchange is THB 9.66 for one USD.

Generally, consumers prefer farmed seabass in sea cages rather than those farmed in earthen ponds, mainly because of off-flavour in pond-raised fish. Boonsawang farm prefers to culture fish in earthen ponds with 15-18ppt salinity. It is also easier to manage because of Suthiâ€s farming experience. He has found ways to address weak points in inland pond culture such as off-flavour, taste, texture, and quality (Figure 1).

Over the last 10 years, Suthi Mahalao has been a happy man. He owns the Boonsawang farm in Bangpakong, Chachengsao Province which has an annual production of more than 700 tonnes of Asian seabass, Lates calcarifer giving a yield of 22.3 tonnes/ha from the 31ha farm. This has been continuous for over 10 years. However, the actual capacity is more than 1,000 tonnes/year, but production has been restricted by demand. Acceptance in high end retail markets is recognition that his seabass production is natural and free of chemicals and antibiotics.

Suthi is not only well known for his farming skills but also as the inventor of a grading bucket now adopted by farmers in Thailand. He has also trained farmers in using pelleted feeds in seabass farming. He is the current chairman of the Thai Marine Fish Farming Association and has received as many as 20 accolades for his contribution to Thailandâ€s aquaculture industry. Among them are Best Fish Farmer in the Royal Ploughing Ceremony Year 2017, Lert Rat Award in 2018 and Best Fish Farmer of the National Bureau of Agricultural Commodity and Food Standards, Thailand.

Marketing seabass

It is well known that the most discerning buyers are Japanese chefs. Success is when inland cultured seabass meets these chefs†criteria on quality and freshness. Boonsawang supplies seabass fillets to premium restaurants in Thailand such as the Kensaku Japanese restaurant and premium Copper Buffet where seabass is prepared as sashimi. The farm also supplies fish for Thai raw fish “Ikejime” (Ikejime is a method of killing fish which maintains the quality of its meat). This was possible as the farmâ€s seabass has passed the test of no off-flavour or muddy taste.

The farming process

The farm starts with 5-inch (12.7cm) fingerlings. Stocking density will depend on target harvest sizes. For harvests of 500g fish, it is 5 fingerlings/m2; for 1 kg fish, it is 3 fingerlings/m2 and for larger fish, it is only 1 fingerling/m2. In general, he says that the stocking density is 3-4kg/m2.

The nursing area is 30% of the farm area and is used for the first month stocking. Fish are disinfected before stocking to be parasite- and pathogen-free. Fingerlings come from a hatchery, which is a member of the Thai Marine Fish Farming Association. Prior to delivery, the hatchery will acclimatise fingerlings to the salinity of pond water at the farm and temperature during transportation is 25-26°C.

Water preparation should be at least a week before stocking. Water is filled to the optimum level and the aerator requirement is 1 HP/tonne of biomass for adequate oxygen demand. The optimum water parameters should be, pH 7.5-8.5, alkalinity >100ppm, transparency 10- 20cm, salinity 15-30ppt, and ammonia nitrite 0. The survival rate is more than 80% for the 6-month cycle. The average daily growth or ADG is around 5.4g.

A leader in seabass farming

Suthi first entered aquaculture in the farming of the monodon shrimp in 1992, as well as acting as a feed distributor. His journey into seabass farming has not been without challenges. In 1995, he began seabass farming using fresh feeds, but he failed. A year later, with the availability of slow sinking feeds, together with another farmer, Suthi continued to farm seabass but again failed. While other farmers left the industry, he persevered with slow sinking pelleted feed, achieving a survival of 20%. He said, “The fish did not look like the seabass but more like a tilapia with a short and plump body. Over the 2 years, I lost USD30,000. I then stopped farming and over the next 8 years, decided to visit farms and learn fish farming from about 300 farmers. In 2004, I restarted, and success came on a yearly basis.”

Secrets of success: Feeding

In a discussion, Suthi identified some techniques which led to his success in seabass farming. It began with him identifying the feeding behaviour of fingerlings and dividing them into five groups. Depending on the feeding behaviour, he will adjust the feeding protocol. In 2004, he was the first farmer to wean 1 inch (2.5 cm) fish onto artificial feeds. He has also modified the feeding rate and management based on fish behaviour i.e., slow and aggressive feeders and those that reject feeds. He has studied the size of feeds required over the culture cycle. The industry uses 4-5 sizes of feeds. Together with Thai Union Feedmill, Suthi has developed 10 sizes of pellets for his farm. The largest size range is 23-30mm.

The broadcasting of feed is in the shape of a traditional Chinese fan with regular speed and force. Feeding is only conducted during low light, i.e., early morning and late afternoon. This is because, according to Suthi, fish are afraid of bright and strong sunlight. He does not use any auto feeder as he wants the feeding team to observe the condition of the fish, understand how to feed and take care of the stock. He also continues to run the aerator during feeding to ensure dissolved oxygen (DO) is sufficient when fish are digesting feed. Attention is on feeding as sometimes fish overconsume when they are stressed.

In general, the feeding protocol includes no feeding over the 2 days after stocking and on the third day, they are fed only for the morning meal. Feeding is within the feeding frame with a blue net with a perimeter of 50m. Broadcasting of feed is aligned to the wind direction and is completed within 10 minutes. Feed amount is 90% of feed demand according to biomass. The team dissects fish and examines left over feed in the fish stomach, identifies sizes of pellets and adjusts feeding accordingly. Some feed conversion ratios (FCR) are shown in Table 1.

At the heart is pond preparation

Suthi has studied in detail soil and water parameters and their management so that he can operate the farm successfully with the principle of “prevention is better than cure.” His technique of pond preparation is a mechanical way of using only water. This is essential so that fish cultured in these ponds have no off-flavour. This is done by switching between dry and wet soil conditions multiple times to eliminate bacteria, snails or weeds and use chain dragging to refresh the pond bottom.

Pond preparation is over 50 days and starts with drying the pond after harvesting until the pond bottom cracks. The pond is then filled with water to a depth of 60cm in the deepest part of the pond. Aeration is for 2 days using a long arm aerator and with 10 dosages of effective microorganisms (Bacillus probiotics) which is also used during the culture period.

Next is chain dragging continuously over 20 days. This is done twice a day, each for 2-3 hours per round during the early morning and evening. This is to stir up all the sediments and mix them with water. According to Suthi, on day 3, toxic gases will burst out creating a stinky, black, and oily surface and on day 7-10, there will be more gas emissions. On day 11-12, the water colour will change from black to gray and by day 15-17, brown bubbles will surface. If this does not happen, it is time to add microorganisms.

From day 18-20, the farmer should examine the soil to ensure cleanliness. Chain dragging is repeated if there is still black soil. Drying will follow until the soil cracks on day 21-22. He cautioned that it may be necessary to repeat chain dragging or extend the process, if at the last crop, there were parasites. Next is to apply lime at around 400- 500kg/acre (1,000-1,235kg/ha), followed by spraying with water and leaving overnight to reduce the bacteria population. Water is then added very slowly to fill up the pond and to cover only 10cm in the shallow area.

Final words

Suthi said, “Inland farming can be better once the farmer learns how to manage the farm properly. What we need is knowledge and know-how. I am always happy to share my experiences and knowledge with anyone with a passion to learn. I love farming fish and sharing what I learnt is important for me.”

“To feed the world with farm seafood is becoming more important and a farmer must value his or her contribution. It is essential to feed our fellow human beings with safe and quality fish. This is our responsibility.”

The article was published in issue Marxh/April 2024 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific

The post A success story on Thai earthen pond seabass farming appeared first on Aqua Culture Asia Pacific.

Drastically low prices started the ‘stop and start†trend.

By Zuridah Merican

At the end of 2022, most farmers worked with the expectation that post pandemic, demand will rebound and with this comes better prices. Buying had started in China in late 2022 and the first half of 2023 saw record high imports in China, going over the half a million tonnes mark but consumer demand and imports in the western markets of North America and Europe were down. Imports also declined in Japan and Australia (Globefish, 2023).

Since early 2023, farmers grappled with lower farmgate prices, (Figure 1). According to Globefish, in June 2023, the benchmark farmgate prices of vannamei shrimp for 60/kg were record lows at USD3.83 in Vietnam, USD2.88 in India, USD3.62 in Indonesia and USD2.20 in Ecuador. Thailand started well with a high price of USD5.37 in January 2023 but fluctuated downwards to end at USD3.88 in December, drastically low compared to that in 2022 at USD4.65 (Source: Vinij Tansakul).

By December 2023 prices were better at USD4.58 in Vietnam, USD 3.20-3.43 in India and USD2.65 in Ecuador but lower at USD3.52 in Indonesia. The highest farmgate price at USD4.84 was in Malaysia, where shrimp are mostly for the domestic market.

Vannamei shrimp supply in 2023

With falling farmgate prices, the question was whether the global vannamei shrimp supply in 2023 will contract. The Global Seafood Alliance (GSA) and Rabobank global shrimp aquaculture production survey and forecast report (presented at the Responsible Seafood Summit 2023 in October) gave a modest supply decline of 0.4% for 2023 at 5.6 million tonnes. During TARS 2023 in August, Robins McIntosh, Charoen Pokphand showed data for 2022 at 5.34 million tonnes and in 2023, only 5.10 million tonnes. However, when Kontali considered the growth in volumes by Ecuador, the projection was 6.3 million tonnes in 2023 (Visch, 2023; Bussel, 2023).

As early as January 2023, Indiaâ€s industry leaders were pessimistic and projected drops as much as 10-12% for 2023. Rabobank (Sharma, 2023) also gave some projections of 2023 production: Vietnam to be less -15.1%, Indonesia, -5.1% and Thailand -2.2%. However, data from the Department of Fisheries Thailand (DOF) gave a 1.27% growth in production to a total of 260,268 tonnes with more volumes for both vannamei and black tiger shrimp (Table 1). Production from China is expected to increase by 8.8%.

Farmed shrimp trade in 2023

Until July 2023, Chris Bussel, Kontali, at TARS 2023 reported a supply of 6.25 million tonnes of live weight equivalent (LWE) and out of this only 3.5 million tonnes entered the global trade, with 57% exported and 43% consumed locally. In a November review on export data up to Q3 2023, Willem van der Pijl, Shrimp Insights said that in Q3, the average prices of exported shrimp remained low. Despite a price slump, export volumes, mainly from Ecuador and India, continued to grow while others dropped. In Q1-Q3, the top six producers, Ecuador, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, China and Thailand exported1.8 million tonnes (Shrimp Insights, 2023).

In a presentation on export statistics for the global shrimp market at the second Global Shrimp Forum 2023 (GSF 2023), van der Pijl noted that within 6 months in 2023, Ecuador had reached 600,000 tonnes of exports raising a possibility that exports would reach 1.2 million tonnes for the whole year.

“The total export value for Ecuador decreased, reflecting the negative price trend that Ecuadorâ€s exporters have been experiencing in China and other markets they supply to,” said van der Pijl. Similarly, Indiaâ€s export value is on the decline. This is reflected in the negative price trend that exporters have experienced in the US and China, Indiaâ€s two largest export markets.

China was absorbing most of Ecuadorian shrimp. There are also exports of Ecuadorian shrimp via Vietnam to China as the final destination. China was also absorbing shrimp from India, followed by Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. With regards to other markets, volumes into the US dropped 18% y-o-y with an average retail value of USD9/kg. In 2023, while Ecuadorâ€s exports to the US dropped by 4%, other countries -India, Indonesia and Vietnam showed drops ranging from 20-28%.

Eyes on Ecuador

Industry in Asia continues to be intrigued by the success of Ecuador in growing its shrimp production and marketing. Sandro Coglitore, General Manager, Omarsa S.A shared some factors responsible for this success, during the Shrimp Summit 2023, among which were: low failure rates, technification with automatic feeders, aeration, and genetics and larval rearing. Production is within the same area of 220,000 ha. Thankfully, China is absorbing its production. Robins McIntosh added that Ecuadorâ€s advantage is the post- harvest handling which Coglitore added that Ecuador has large integrators unlike the many 3-5 ha farms all over Asia. In the past year, large farms have been absorbing smaller farms too. Industry in Ecuador has enjoyed years of profits and is also more capitalised than their Asian counterparts.

Manoj Sharma, Mayank Aquaculture, India noted that Ecuador, albeit one-tenth the size of India but produced 1.3 million tonnes, surpassing India. Sharma attributed Ecuadorâ€s success to their efficiency. “Ecuadorâ€s farmers are far more efficient than us, at 15% less than Indiaâ€s cost of production”.

Asian farmers realise that Ecuador has the better advantage especially when their market prices are low and the US market is nearby. Seabina.com said that Ecuador can sell up to USD2/kg lower than Vietnamese shrimp. It added that Ecuador has 40,000 ha of ASC certified farms allowing them to easily access the EU markets. With record low prices (USD2.80/kg for size 40- 50/kg dropping from USD4.10/kg in April 2022), supply chain challenges, rising prices of fishmeal, pending El Niño etc, Coglitore sees the only way to lower costs is through increasing yields.

At GSF 2023, Gabriel Luna, Gluna Shrimp, Ecuador, and other industry experts estimated a 10-15% growth for Ecuadorâ€s production to 1.5 million tonnes in 2023. On the contrary Rabobank gave a less optimistic 6.3% growth.

Industry and production trends in 2023

India

There was a slow start in 2023, with farmers not stocking. It was a wait and see situation, either harvesting size 100/kg when prices were low or in anticipation of prices rising, keeping shrimp in ponds to reach larger sizes. Many large integrators managed to cope with low prices while pessimism with the second crop pushed others to give up leases for farms.

Most pond sizes are large and unlined. As farmers are challenged by disease outbreaks, Ravi Kumar Yellanki, Vaisakhi Biomarine said, “The route opted was to improve cost efficiency which was to lower stocking density from the current 40-50 PL/m2. There is also the realisation that carrying capacity is constrained by the concentration of farms in a few areas. The trend of not taking a break between cycles and using the same water and probiotics is changing too. Some farms take crop holidays to break the pathogen cycle. Ultimately, production volumes in 2023 is expected to go down.” To access markets in Europe, some farms are pushing for ASC certification. “The current landscape presents a dichotomy. Despite Indiaâ€s ascent as a global shrimp producer, boasting a capability to reach the one-million-tonne output and as one of the leading exporters of shrimp, the industry grapples with a stark reality — a diminished farm success rate hovering around 40-50%, compared to a success rate of 85% in 2010,” said Manoj.

Vietnam

It was confirmed by industry that production declined in 2023. However, data presented in Table 1 on black tiger shrimp only reflected production from intensive/semi- intensive farms. Globefish reported that Vietnamâ€s average farmgate prices for June 2023 was the highest in Asia at USD3.83/kg for size 60/kg. However, similar to India, there is a waiting game for higher prices such that at Vietfish 2023, Ho Quoc Luc, Fimex, expected a shortage of raw materials in the third quarter of 2023. He added that there was a lot of inventory in Vietnam. The current strategy is to work on value adding. Key is also to have a larger domestic market to absorb production. Vietnam has a free trade agreement with the EU but for better access, such markets require traceability.

For several years, industry leaders lamented on the high cost of production (COP) in Vietnam at almost USD4.00/kg. Bringing down COP is a support mechanism by aquafeed producers such as CP Vietnam, Sheng Long, Grobest and Skretting as well as Minh Phu, the leading integrator which have been developing models to increase yield and lower COP.

At GSF 2023, Dr Loc Tran, Shrimp Vet stressed that farmers need to reduce the risks of disease to achieve better profitability. He promotes a farm concept where the focus is on survival rate and COP and shrimp farming as a business. The minimum production is 2,000 tonnes which will require farms to consolidate. At Vietfish, Jesper Clausen, De Heus Vietnam said, “Some in Vietnam expect 2024 to be a transition year but industry will need to work hard at lowering the impact of disease and improve on efficiency.”

Indonesia

The Industry estimates production of 265 -275,000 tonnes of vannamei shrimp and 40-45,000 tonnes of black tiger shrimp in 2023. Farmgate prices fluctuated and prices for size 50/kg shrimp ended the year at USD3.54, much lower than 2022 at USD3.96 (Figure 2, JALA Tech.)

According to Aryo Wiryawan, JALA Tech, at TARS 2023, “Today 60% of the farms are no longer operating showing disease is impacting the industry.” In contrast, Denny Leonardo, Pandora Aquatech, Indonesia, believes that the fear of low farmgate prices is the major factor deterring production. Indonesia has one of the lowest COP at USD3.00-3.50/kg and some well managed farms can secure a lower COP such as USD2.50-2.90/kg. At TARS 2023, Bussel had anticipated some issues when a new regulation PP36 takes effect in August 2023 which may likely affect the cash flow of processors and buying of harvests.

Indonesia, together with Ecuador, India, and Vietnam are subjected to antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations for imports of frozen warmwater shrimp to the US. This is a first for Indonesia and for industry players, it is particularly challenging when the US is the major market. Indonesian shrimp exports reached 130,776 tonnes, which was 17% behind the 2022 third quarter. Some 76% went to the US and other markets are Japan (12%). Malaysia is the third largest market this year with 3,581 tonnes (Shrimp Insights, 2023).

China

In recent years, there have been changes in Chinaâ€s production landscape with the push to meet domestic demand by setting up small and large green houses. Guo (2023) gave an estimate of 1.49 million tonnes from seawater farms in 11 provinces and calculated 300,000 tonnes from freshwater ponds based on a success rate of 80%, bringing production to 1.89 million tonnes. At GSF 2023, Fang Qing, Aquaculture Stewardship Council China, countered that a success rate of 20% is more likely as farmers faced poor farming conditions, disease challenges and poor market prices. Another point raised was that such systems, using ground water may not be in line with the governmentâ€s program on ecological methods of farming.

Visch (2023) said that there is increasing competition between domestic production and imported shrimp. Farmgate prices are usually much higher in China, compared with those in other countries, but in July, prices dropped 30% because of quality issues. Shrimp production in recirculation systems (RAS) is gaining momentum and Guo reported on plans by leading feed companies (Tongwei, CP and Evergreen) to expand their investments in RAS. Live vannamei shrimp are sold at USD40/kg.

Whatâ€s next in 2024

Responsible Seafood Summit 2023 expects global production to grow by about 4.8% in 2024 to close to 5.88 million tonnes (Dory, 2023). Rabobankâ€s Aquaculture Update 1H 2024 expects mild growth and mild contraction in Ecuador. However, an industry insider predicted a supply increase of 8% for 2024. While some in Ecuadorâ€s industry expect some effects from El Niño which was due to start in December 2023, particularly to 110,000 ha out of the total of 225,000 ha, Kontaliâ€s shrimp analyst, Erwin Temaat, is convinced that large integrators are well prepared to mitigate risks with little effects on Ecuadorâ€s production.

In India, Rabobank says that the expected contraction may not occur in 1H 2024. Another scenario is a contraction as prices are still very low and farmers will continue to skip cycles. Vietnam is the most expensive producer in Asia and production is expected to drop. In 2023, export volumes declined 23% but value went down 40%.

The curve ball for 2024 will be the US AD and CVD investigations, which will only take effect in 2H 2024. Before that we may see importers stocking up in 1H 2024.

The comeback with black tiger shrimp

The GSA/Rabobank survey featured a chart on the comeback of the black tiger shrimp with a CAGR of 7.6% in 2022, 9.3% in 2023 and a further 7.8% is expected in 2024 (Figure 3). Asian black tiger production is estimated at 520,000 tonnes in 2023 and is expected to increase to 580,000 tonnes in 2024 (Robins McIntosh, pers comm.) with growth in India and China.

According to Shyamal Das, MU Seafoods, Bangladesh produced 70,219 tonnes in 2022, with 1,229 tonnes from semi-intensive farms. Thailand and Malaysia are small producers targeting the niche and live markets. There was more production in 2023 in Thailand according to DOF data, as well as in Malaysia. A Malaysian insider expects more production in 2024.

At TARS 2023, Manoj said, “Understanding the world market for the black tiger shrimp is critical. India can hardly achieve an annual production of 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes since price realisation will be difficult when volumes increase.”

Shrimp Insights reported that Indiaâ€s black tiger exports in 2023 almost doubled to 22,315 tonnes from that in 2022. Exports went to Asian markets in 2022 and 2023, moving away from the focus on EU markets. Bangladesh exported 17,409 tonnes of black tiger shrimp and its major market is the Netherlands (Das, 2023).

In 2023, the major setback was depressed prices, often close to that for large size vannamei, such as in India, Vietnam and Malaysia (Table 2). Recent data on farmgate prices in Vietnam showed a farmgate price for size 30/kg black tiger USD6.95/kg) compared to USD 5.93/kg for vannamei shrimp (Table 2). There is a premium of MYR1.50/kg for live black tiger in Malaysia (MYR26.50/kg (USD5.62) versus MYR25/kg (USD5.30). Within Malaysia and also internationally, the market is small and very competitive. “Quality matters for buyers, such as offering Malaysiaâ€s black tiger USD2.00/kg more over those from India,” said Catherine Lee, GST at TARS 2023.

Conclusion

During the panel on shrimp production at the Shrimp Summit 2023, Robins McIntosh said that the price cycle with shrimp farming will always be there. Lower prices at retail may increase consumption but ultimately, it is about managing costs. Farmers always need higher margins to compensate for the high failure rate, hovering at 20-30%. Managing costs is critical, which farmers can control. At TARS 2023, he said, “In an oversupply situation, it will be the lower cost producers that will stay alive.” When prices recover, he predicted that Indonesia and India will be ready.

References are available on request

The article was published in issue January/February 2024 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific

The post Asian marine shrimp in 2023: Reflections on the lowest prices in a decade appeared first on Aqua Culture Asia Pacific.