Low feed demand as farmers react to low fish/shrimp farmgate prices
By AAP
Aquafeed production volumes in Asia Pacific were lower in 2023, as reported in the Alltech Global Agrifood Outlook 2024. It was 35.7 million tonnes as compared to 38.42 million tonnes in 2022. In China, 2023 volumes were lower by 10%. However, data for 2023 from the Thai Feed Mill Association suggested a 6% increase to 512,000 tonnes of shrimp feeds but volumes were lower for fish feeds.
According to data, collected by the Aquaculture Department, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), Indonesia, total aquafeed production declined marginally to 1.7 million tonnes for 2023.
In Vietnam, production of shrimp feeds increased 3% but there were mixed reports on volumes of fish feeds. In Malaysia, less shrimp feeds was used but there was a large increase in demand for marine fish feeds for seabass and milkfish farming (Table 1).
Low prices high input costs
Throughout Asia, the same situation reverberates –with low prices for final products and high input cost, shrimp and fish farmers are rethinking their farming strategy.
B. Ravikumar, Growel Feeds, said, “In India, shrimp farmers opted to reduce stocking of ponds, perhaps 5 out of 10 ponds and keeping to 30 PL/m2. Additionally, they take a gap after a disease outbreak in a pond. In late 2023 until early 2024, we had more outbreaks of RMS and WSSV. Other strategies included harvesting smaller sizes at 100/kg, delaying stocking while waiting for better prices to restock or in low saline farming areas, it was shifting to farming fish in shrimp ponds. With low farmgate prices, fish farmers shifted to cheaper farm-made feeds.”
In China, the historic low prices for largemouth bass, down to USD3.00/kg in Foshan (Guangdong Province), coupled with high pond rental costs and costly feed prompted many farmers to reconsider restocking and farming (Zhang, 2023).
The export value of Vietnam’s pangasius fell 30% and even at good farmgate prices of VND28,500/kg (USD1.11), farmers were producing at cost with feed prices at VND14,500/kg (USD0.56), FCR at 1.6 and a high fish mortality rate up to 60%, due to the environment. Although prices were expected to increase with demand from China, farmers are downsizing, according to Vietfish magazine.
A contraction in feed consumption
In 2023, utilisation of freshwater feeds in China, mainly for the carps dropped by 15%. while those for marine fish and shrimp increased 10% and freshwater specialty feeds increased by more than 13%. The decline in consumption in China affected the production of five major aquafeed producers, all down to below the one million mark by a range of 0.3% to 23% (efeedlink.com).
At the Global Shrimp Forum 2023, Ramakanth Akula, The Waterbase, India expected a 15% decline in volumes of shrimp feeds in 2023, from the 1.35 million tonnes in 2022. Large integrated companies with feed operations and contract farmers were less affected. Vietnam’s Vinh Hoan, the largest pangasius integrator, restarted feed production in 2022.
In Indonesia, the contraction to 386,000 tonnes of shrimp feed is because of disease outbreaks and low farm gate prices.

The estimate on aquafeed production in 2022 for the Philippines was 120,000 tonnes of shrimp feed and 867,000 tonnes of fish feed, which included 520,000 tonnes of feeds for the milkfish and 347,000 tonnes for the tilapia (Aqua Culture Asia Pacific, May/June 2023). An industry source said that volumes were just lower by 1%. in 2023.
Aquafeed prices
Commodity and feed ingredient prices skyrocketed in 2022 forcing feed companies to raise feed prices by 20-30%. Figure 1 provides animal feed ingredient prices in Thailand from 2021-2024 to illustrate this surge. However, this changed in 2023. Soybean meal, corn and wheat prices eased by 25%, 30% and 24% respectively during the period January to December. Feed companies are normally behind the curve when it comes to raising prices and thus margins are squeezed as raw material prices can be as high as 90% of the net unit selling prices in shrimp feed.
Due to the start of El Niño, Peru was forced to close one fishing season as fish sizes were too small. Peru contributes to 30% of global fishmeal production and prices for the year was rangebound between USD1,780/tonne and USD1,880/tonne for 65% crude protein fishmeal. Feed companies were able to reduce feed prices unless they were heavily reliant on fishmeal as an ingredient.
Price Reductions
In AAP’s 2023 report, covering 2022 up to May 2023, feed millers in several countries detailed how they had to raise prices after absorbing the cost increases over the years 2021-2022. In Vietnam, the price of pangasius feed which contains soybean meal, wheat middlings, rice bran and tapioca was reduced by 8% in late 2023. There was no reduction in costs in India, but an industry source said farmers benefited via discounts. Haris Muhtadi, Shrimp Club Indonesia, said that in general, feed millers reduced shrimp feed prices by 7-10%.
While it is possible to reduce feed costs as feed mills in Vietnam have access to imported and local ingredients, a feed miller commented that local suppliers cannot guarantee there will be no antibiotics in their end products. This becomes an issue when looking for affordable, local fishmeal and fish oil. Another limitation for local sourcing is the need for feed to be ASC, BAP, Global GAP compliant. Naturally, these certifications always come with a premium on feed price.
Competitive edge
At country and at individual company level, it is well accepted that feed production is operating under capacity. In Vietnam, Jeff Chuang Jie Cheng, Sheng Long Bio-Tech said that their production is 60% of capacity.
“India has more than 35 large and medium size feed companies; the total capacity is 3.3 million tonnes and production was at 40%,” said Akula. Indonesia’s Feedmills Association (GPMT) has 25 aquafeed mills registered. Deny Mulyono, Chairman Aqua Division said that their total capacity is 3.2 million tonnes/ year. There are 1,700 aquafeed producers in China in 2021. “The consolidation between Chinese aquafeed companies is not obvious,” said Yufan Zhang, Alltech China. “Since the total amount of aquafeeds in China has begun to decline, the competition has become more intense.”
In terms of market share, two market leaders, PT CP Prima and Japfa Comfeed share 40% of the shrimp feed market and 45% of the fish feed market in Indonesia. In India, the market leader, Avanti Feeds has 35% of the shrimp feed market. Therefore, the shrimp feed market is very competitive with around 12 local and multinational companies vying for the rest of the market.
Dealers play a major role in feed distribution in Asia. In Vietnam, Chuang said that dealers have become more discerning on credit terms. In India, dealers imposed stricter terms for credit. Feed millers themselves provide credit, some as long as 90 days with markups at 17%. The strength of the technical team is an important advantage. Chuang said, “We increased sales in 2023, with fish feeds at 330,000 tonnes and have 40% market share for tilapia and snakehead feeds. Despite a bad year for shrimp feeds with disease outbreaks, we improved sales and managed to have a 20% market share in the Mekong Delta and 35% in the central region. We have a strong sales and technical team of 500 staff.”
Outlook for 2024
There is an expectation that shrimp prices will remain low in 2024. Industry expects low production to continue in India and demand for feeds from leading feed companies will decline further in 2024.
Fish meal and fish oil supply is expected to remain low. In its update in May 2024, IFFO noted that in the first three months of 2024, global fishmeal production dropped by approximately 27% compared to the same period in 2023. The cumulative output of fish oil through March 2024 was 30% down y-o-y.
Aquafeed production capacity is expanding in Vietnam. In 2023, De Heus constructed a 240,000 tonnes factory dedicated to pangasius feed. Sheng Long will expand with another plant in May as it strives towards a production of one million tonnes of fish feeds and 300,000 tonnes of shrimp feeds in 5 years. In southern Vietnam, China’s Yuehai Feeds Group has started construction of a 100,000 tonnes/year aquafeed plant. In Indonesia, PT Evergreen expanded with another feed mill in Java, with a production capacity of 200,000 tonnes of aquafeeds. Its first aquafeed mill is in Lampung, Sumatra.
Acknowledgements
This is a review on the aquafeed industry in Asia published annually. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to those mentioned in this article and other industry stakeholders who have willingly provided information but have requested to remain anonymous.

Published in May/June 2024 AQUA Culture Asia Pacific