The changing landscape in Thailand demands growing domestic consumption.
The article titled “Shrimp: Continuous weak prices dampen growth”, published in AQUA Culture Asia Pacific January/February 2025, highlights a significant correlation. It suggests that if global shrimp prices rise, global shrimp production could also expand accordingly.
However, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, the global shrimp industry had to adapt to a new normal in shrimp prices. This includes reducing production volumes and lowering shrimp stocking densities. Thailand is no exception. The Thai shrimp industry faces challenges such as declining export volumes and values due to the higher production costs compared to competing countries (Table 1).
Since 2010, the industry in Thailand has seen a continuous loss of key export markets, including those in the US, European Union, China, and Japan (Figure 1). In some countries, such as China, domestic demand for shrimp consumption is exceptionally high. This can lead to domestic shrimp prices being higher than export prices, as producers may prioritise meeting local demand.
The changing landscape of Thai shrimp aquaculture
The Thai shrimp industry is at a critical crossroad, facing unprecedented challenges that demand immediate and strategic transformation. Traditionally renowned as a global export powerhouse, Thailand is now confronting a significant shift in market dynamics.
Domestic consumption has surged 73% from 78,650 tonnes, since 2016 to an estimated 136,000 tonnes in 2024, while over the period 2016-2024, export volumes have declined almost 60% from 207,708 tonnes to 130,101 tonnes (Table 2, DOF, Thailand). This fundamental restructuring of the market requires a comprehensive reimagining of the entire shrimp aquaculture ecosystem.
This shift has led to farmgate shrimp prices in Thailand being less tied to export prices set by local cold storage facilities. Farmgate prices are higher and show a stronger upward trend compared to export prices. Over the past decade, global shrimp prices have consistently declined due to economic stagnation and reduced demand in major importing countries versus increased production by supplying countries.
Restructuring Thailand’s shrimp aquaculture
Thailand’s industry must undergo restructuring to respond to both domestic and international market changes and challenges. Domestic shrimp consumption has risen significantly, driven by higher consumer incomes, an expanding middle class, and shifting consumption patterns. This reflects opportunities for domestic market development.
Thailand continues to face export challenges due to stiff competition from major producers like Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which benefit from much lower production costs. Rising logistics costs, driven by higher oil prices and shipping delays, further erode Thailand’s global competitiveness. While higher domestic shrimp prices benefit farmers, they pressure local exporters who must compete on price in international markets.
In the long term, Thailand’s shrimp industry must enhance production efficiency through technology and sustainable farming practices, such as automated feeding systems and precision disease management, to reduce costs and maintain competitiveness. For example, adopting smart farming technologies can lower feed costs, by improving feed conversion ratios (FCRs) and survival rates. Such changes can help ensure Thailand’s competitiveness in both domestic and export markets.
In addition, the Department of Fisheries (DOF) forecasts that the farm-gate prices of Thai shrimp will continue to rise in 2025, compared to the previous year (Figure 2). This upward trend is driven by several factors, including the increased promotion of domestic shrimp consumption, particularly fueled by the growth of the tourism sector. Thailand, a renowned destination for seafood lovers, welcomed approximately 35.54 million foreign tourists in 2024, significantly boosting demand for shrimp. The expanding tourism industry has led to higher domestic consumption, as restaurants and hotels increasingly feature shrimp dishes on their menus to cater to both Thai and international visitors. The popularity of buffet-style restaurants offering fresh and ready-to-eat shrimp options, alongside the rise in shrimp exports to neighbouring countries, has further strengthened this trend. Additionally, cold storage facilities are shifting their focus to the domestic market for frozen shrimp, capitalising on favourable profit margins and lower logistics costs, compared to international shipping. Together, these dynamics are shaping a robust and growing domestic demand for Thai shrimp.
Production for rising domestic demand
If Thailand achieved the same level of shrimp consumption as the US, which stands at 2.2 kg per capita (National Fisheries Institute NFI, 2022), domestic demand would be more than double. This would require a significant increase in shrimp production or a reallocation of exports to meet local market needs. Thailand’s target for shrimp production in the coming years is set at 400,000 tonnes, a volume that would be sufficient to cover both domestic demand and export commitments.
However, over the past five years, Thailand’s shrimp production has consistently remained below 300,000 tonnes, highlighting the need for substantial efforts to scale up production and meet future targets. Achieving this goal will require advancements in aquaculture technology, improved farming practices, and effective resource management to ensure sustainable growth in the industry.
Strategies to enhance competitiveness
The Thai shrimp industry must undergo structural adjustments to bolster its competitiveness both domestically and internationally. Within the country, it is essential to conduct consumer behaviour research, develop value-added products, and expand distribution channels. On the production side, advanced technologies should be adopted, such as auto feeding systems, real-time water quality monitoring, and precision disease management, to minimise losses and increase productivity. Additionally, exploring alternative feed ingredients can help reduce costs and environmental impacts.
Strengthening farmer support systems is crucial. Farmers should unite to form robust cooperatives to enhance bargaining power and efficiently share production resources. Training programs on sustainable farming practices and modern marketing knowledge will enable farmers to adapt to evolving market demands. Establishing a premium Thai shrimp brand that emphasises high quality, food safety through pre-cooling residue and drug testing, and environmentally friendly practices can further increase value and sustain market demand.
Finally, diversifying export markets is vital. Focus should be on niche export markets that prioritise quality, such as organic or ethically farmed, environmentally friendly shrimp, and low-carbon Thai shrimp. Leveraging Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and improving logistics efficiency will support these efforts. The Thai shrimp industry should promote research and innovation through collaboration with academic institutions and the private sector to develop technologies that enhance productivity, reduce costs, ensure shrimp quality, and guarantee long- term sustainability.
“The future of the Thai shrimp industry will not be measured by the quantity of production, but by quality, innovation, traceability and sustainability.”
Conclusion
The domestic market will become an important segment for development. Diversifying risks by creating domestic consumption demand will help reduce the impact of export market volatility. Online trading platforms and digital marketing will be important channels to reach consumers directly, creating relationships and trust between producers and consumers.
Thailand’s farmed shrimp industry is at a pivotal juncture, facing a tailwind of rising domestic demand and a headwind of declining export competitiveness. Prioritising the domestic market, enhancing production efficiency, and adopting innovative practices will help Thailand adapt to this new landscape while maintaining its status as a global shrimp producer.
A strategic focus on quality, sustainability, and market diversification will ensure the industry’s long-term resilience, benefiting all stakeholders—from farmers to consumers. The future of the Thai shrimp industry will not be measured by the quantity of production, but by quality, innovation, traceability and sustainability. Compared to other major shrimp-producing countries in Asia, such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, Thailand’s traceability system which covers the entire production process—from shrimp post larvae to harvest is considered one of the most sophisticated and reliable in the region.
This allows Thai shrimp to meet the strict requirements of niche markets, including organic, health-conscious, and sustainability-focused segments. For example, consumers and retailers can verify that Thai shrimp are produced without harmful chemicals, using environmentally friendly methods, and with fair labour practices. This level of transparency builds trust and gives Thailand a significant competitive edge.
This transformation presents an opportunity to reshape the industry, create a strong ecosystem, and ensure Thailand stands proudly on the global trade stage.
References
AAP, 2025. Shrimp: Weak Prices Dampen Growth. January/ February Issue. AQUA Culture Asia Pacific Magazine., pages 39- 40.
DOF, 2024. Department of Fisheries, Thailand Annual Aquaculture Statistics Report 2024.
TAT, 2024. Tourism Authority of Thailand Annual Tourism Statistics Report 2024.
Note: This article draws from industry data and market analysis available as of February 2025.
Vinij Tansakul is Aquaculture Consultant with the Thai Fisheries Promotion Association. This article was first published in issue March/April 2025
