The aquaculture industry faces volatility and possible trade flow shifts in 2H 2025, driven by US tariffs and uncertain demand. But supply-side dynamics are strong, says Rabobank’s Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Analyst, Seafood and Novel Sharma, Analyst, Seafood in the latest update.
In the second half of 2025, global seafood markets may be influenced by macroeconomic pressures and evolving trade dynamics. In the US, elevated tariffs and persistent inflation are expected to constrain consumer purchasing power, potentially prompting exporters to shift their focus toward more stable and receptive markets, such as the EU. Ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy could continue to weigh on demand expectations, particularly for high-value farmed species like salmon and shrimp.
Global salmon production is projected to continue expanding, after a robust growth in 1H 2025, primarily driven by a strong recovery in Chile. In contrast, Norway may face biological and environmental challenges such as elevated sea temperatures and algal blooms, which could constrain output. Key takeaways from the team with regards to salmon include:
- Prices may face further downward pressure in the latter half of 2025
- Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy present further challenges to demand growth
Shrimp
Supply: The positive momentum observed earlier in the year may give way to a more cautious production strategy, as producers aim to avoid oversupply conditions that could place downward pressure on prices. Shrimp supply growth is expected to slow in 2H 2025, as producers may delay or reduce stocking in response to US tariffs, contributing to a more cautious production outlook for the remainder of the year.
India may reduce stocking activity due to high temperatures, rising input costs, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, while Ecuador’s export growth could slow if US demand weakens under trade pressure.
Markets: Vietnam’s export markets are well diversified, and the country could benefit from the good European demand. Indonesia, by contrast, is more dependent on the US market and therefore more vulnerable to potential demand contraction resulting from tariff-induced inflation. China’s shrimp imports is projected to remain soft with ongoing economic uncertainty.
Tariffs: These may trigger a pivot in global shrimp trade. A baseline 10% tariff now applies to all imports into the US, and with additional antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) affecting Asian exporters and weaken their US market competitiveness. (As of June 2025, US shrimp imports are subject to combined AD and CVD where Vietnam faces 28.6% duties; India 8.3%, Indonesia 4.61% and Ecuador, 3.8%).
Ecuador, in particular benefit from lower tariff exposure. With other countries in Latin America, Ecuador has the opportunity to grow value added exports to the US and reduce reliance on the volatile Chinese market.
Prices: These rose in 1H 2025, driven by slower supply growth. Prices in April rose following steep US tariff announcements. The outlook for 2H remains uncertain amid trade and environmental concerns.
Feed
Amid broader market volatility, the feed sector may provide the aquaculture industry with partial relief from macroeconomic pressures. Peru’s anchovy quota, the highest in seven years, driven by favorable oceanic conditions, is expected to support strong fish meal and fish oil supply in the second half of 2025. Although soymeal prices are trending lower, good demand from aquaculture, particularly salmon farming, could help maintain fish meal prices above long-term averages. This relative stability in feed costs may help offset some of the financial strain from tariffs and softening demand, offering modest support to industry margins in the months ahead.
