Global fisheries and aquaculture production is forecast to reach 197 million tonnes in 2025, an increase of 1.7 percent over the previous year. This expansion continues to be driven almost entirely by aquaculture, which is expected to contribute 104.2 million tonnes, while capture fisheries remain broadly stable at 92.9 million tonnes.
Within capture fisheries, improved catches of certain pelagic stocks have been offset by declining quotas for key groundfish fisheries in the North Atlantic. Scientific bodies, particularly the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, have recommended substantial reductions in allowable catches. The advice for North Sea cod was for zero catches in 2026; following negotiations, coastal States agreed to limit their total quota to 44 percent of 2025 levels at 14 000 tonnes. Northeast Atlantic mackerel meanwhile, saw a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) recommendation of 174 000 tonnes, down from 570 000 tonnes in 2025, as the spawning biomass has fallen below the biological limit set for the stock. These recommendations for dramatic reductions to catches point to the increasing fragility of the stocks, but at the same time, protests have erupted from certain fishing industry groups who call the cuts unfeasible.
Trade in groundfish and certain pelagic species has contracted, reflecting these reduced catches and tighter quota allocations. Frozen cod fillet exports have declined as the Northeast Arctic cod TAC remains well below historical averages. The European market has reopened for imports of Russian Alaska pollock, with processors substituting to make up for the limited supply of other whitefish. Herring and mackerel trade has similarly fallen, with quota disputes in the Northeast Atlantic resulting in fragmented management and uncertainty over catch allocations.
Despite concerns over increased tariffs and global trade disruptions, projections regarding the overall global trade volume for aquatic products point to a 2 percent increase in 2025, adding approximately 1.5 million tonnes to international flows. This growth has been concentrated in high-value species, with shrimp, salmon and certain tuna products accounting for the bulk of increased trade. Viet Nam recorded particularly strong export performance for aquatic products, with trade value expected to rise by approximately USD 1 billion in 2025 as shipments of frozen pangasius fillets to Brazil and the European Union increased and exports of live lobster to China expanded. Ecuador added USD 900 million to export earnings through increased volumes of vannamei, while India’s export revenues are projected to rise by USD 800 million despite facing high tariffs in the United States of America, its largest market for aquatic products.
The FAO Fish Price Index registered 121 points in September 2025, marginally above the level recorded at the start of the year. This apparent stability conceals sharply contrasting trends between the capture fisheries and aquaculture components of the index. Prices for wild-caught species have risen substantially throughout 2025, with the whitefish sub-index up 11 points and the pelagics sub-index surging 50 points since January. These increases reflect tightening supply conditions as quota reductions constrain availability. Aquaculture product prices have moved in the opposite direction. The salmon sub-index declined 11 points as increased harvest volumes exceeded demand growth in major markets.
Meanwhile, shrimp prices rose 11 points, marking the first sustained upward movement after more than three years of depressed prices, although this is expected to come down in the near future as inventories are worked through.
Trade policy developments have introduced considerable uncertainty into global markets for fish and fishery products in 2025. The United States, the second-largest import market, implemented a universal 10 percent ad valorem duty on all imports in April, with additional country and product-specific increases phased in through subsequent months. By August, effective tariff rates on most categories of aquatic products ranged between 15 and 25 percent, with Indian shrimp exports facing combined tariffs of 58 percent. Importers responded by accelerating purchases ahead of tariff implementation. Consequently, US shrimp imports between January and June of this year totalled 414 500 tonnes, a 15 percent increase over the same period in 2024, before dropping by 14 percent between July and August. Prices on the US market have remained broadly stable despite the supply glut, with prices for IQF easy-peel shrimp standing about 1 percent higher across all gradings in October 2025 compared to a year ago.
Looking ahead to 2026, the sector will continue to expand and adapt to ever-changing market conditions. Quota reductions for key North Atlantic stocks will constrain availability of groundfish and certain pelagics, maintaining upward pressure on prices. The full impact of tariff increases will become more apparent as inventory buffers are exhausted and costs are progressively passed on to retail prices. The potential for additional trade policy changes has undoubtedly added greater uncertainty to global markets, complicating planning and investment decisions throughout the global value chain for aquatic products.
