Fishmeal production* in March 2026 fell 38% year on year, and cumulative first-quarter production was down 28% versus 2025.
Fish oil output* was also lower, but the decline was less severe: cumulative first-quarter output was down 12% with regional resilience, with Denmark/Norway and Spain.
Enrico Bachis, IFFO’s Market research director stated,
“Peru’s anchovy quota for the first 2026 season has been set at 1,914,049 tonnes, equivalent to 27% of the estimated biomass. The current biomass estimate is about 31% higher than the one from September 2025, although it is 35% lower than the March 2025 estimate and around 17% below the average for January–March surveys between 1996 and 2025.”
He provided insights into the current season in North Central Peru, where fishing bans have been imposed in several areas due to the high presence of juveniles. Peru’s fishmeal and fish oil production generally represents 20% of global output in an average year.
* This data is based on statistics shared by IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the USA, Peru, South Africa and Spain, accounting for 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.
China’s fishmeal demand faces growing pressure despite current stability
China, a key driver of global aquaculture and marine ingredients demand, has not yet seen the usual fishing rebound season that typically occurs in February and March.
Market data indicates that, up to March 2026, domestic aquaculture output and aquafeed production for major specialty farmed species increased year on year. Elevated stock levels of certain species have continued to support aquafeed output and fishmeal usage. However, these high inventories may discourage restocking in the next production cycle.
At the same time, farm-gate prices for species such as largemouth black bass, snakehead and yellow catfish remain weak. This could prompt farmers to scale back production in the coming season. If these conditions persist, feed ingredient demand is likely to decline in the third quarter, which is typically the peak period for aquaculture activity.
In the pig sector, piglet prices have recently eased due to oversupply and weaker-than-expected demand. Farmers restocking at current levels may face losses, as market-weight pigs would be sold in approximately six months under unfavourable price conditions.
As a result, short-term demand for piglet feed and fishmeal could soften. Piglet demand normally peaks between March and June. However, given a recovery in pig prices over the coming weeks, demand could be improved.
Soybean meal prices have fallen amid oversupply and weaker demand, while corn prices have remained broadly stable. According to China’s Customs, soybean imports in the first three months of 2026 were down 3.1% year on year.
