Industry responses from Rabobank’s annual seafood production survey, conducted in partnership with the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA), suggest a more optimistic production outlook for 2024 compared to 2023.
Global shrimp production is forecast to recover in 2024, albeit at a lower rate than the 10-year historical average. Global salmon production is also expected to return to growth in 2024 after two consecutive years of flat or declining year-on-ear growth. However, industry respondents remain concerned about the extent to which the global economy and market prices will recover in 2024.
The article by Rabobank’s team of Novel D. Sharma, Analyst – Seafood and Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Analyst – Seafood presented forecasts for aquaculture production of selected species for 2024. These are based on the views of industry participants gathered in Rabobank’s annual aquaculture survey about finfish and shrimp production, undertaken in cooperation with the GSA.
Shrimp: Back to growth in 2024
The survey results forecast year-on-year shrimp production growth of 4.8% in 2024, surpassing 2022’s peak volumes, after an expected modest decline of 0.4% in 2023.
It expects Ecuador’s production growth to decelerate in 2024, linked with El Niño-related uncertainty. A lower year-on-year rate of 7% is expected with the provision that there is no substantial decline in Chinese demand.
There is optimism that Asia will be back to growth in 2024 after the first decline in 10 years in 2023. But this will depend on prices improving in 2024 and making the majority of the industry profitable. Across Asia, a strong comeback of the monodon shrimp is expected in 2024 with a further 7.8%. It was projected at 9.8% in 2023.
There are expectations that India’s production to recover to 2% growth in 2024, following a sharp 12% contraction in 2023, as farmers stocked less vannamei shrimp, and some switched to producing monodon shrimp. Vietnam‘s growth is expected at 6% production in 2024, rebounding from a significant contraction of around 15% in 2023. Expectations are mixed for other Asia countries.
However, whether both regions achieve their forecast production growth in 2024 will depend on demand improvement in the US and Europe and prices recovering sufficiently to incentivize farmers to increase stocking of ponds.
| Region | CAGR 2010-2021 | 2022 | 2023 expected | 2024 expected |
| India | 18.5% | 0.3% | -12.4% | 2.0% |
| Ecuador | 14.7% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Vietnam | 8.4% | -2.4% | -15.1% | 5.6% |
| China | 0.7% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 1.9% |
| Indonesia | 10.5% | 4.8% | -5.1% | 3.6% |
| Thailand | -3.4% | 5.3% | -2.2% | 1.3% |
| Total | 5.8% | 7.4% | -0.4% | 4.8% |
Source: Rabobank 2023
Finfish
With regards to finfish, the team expects tilapia -5% growth in 2024 to exceed 7m tonnes in global production with China expected to maintain its
position as the top tilapia producer. A deceleration in China’s production could occur if consumers continue to favour premium species and farmers change the species they produce.
There is slight optimism for pangasius production in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% expected, provided that demand is stronger than in 2023 and inventory levels diminish, especially in China.
Market prices once again industry’s top concern
The survey also asked industry experts about their sentiment and concerns for the coming year. Heading into 2024, market prices are the top concern of industry respondents, followed by aquafeed costs. It added that majority of industry respondents do not expect feed prices to be lower in 2024 versus 2023. in the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2024 potential minibans may affect the pace of fishing. El Niño is likely to persist through 1H 2024, and price normalization of fish meal depends on catch rates.
More on this report and figures from the survey at the following links:
What To Expect in Aquaculture in 2024 (rabobank.com)
Global animal protein outlook 2024: Adapting to structural changes to sustain success (rabobank.com)
