From the editor
The top 10 salient points which includes AAP’s wish list for 2026
The global economic outlook shows resilient growth with Asia Pacific leading in stability while the US is showing a K-shaped growth i.e. diverging growth. The
EU will face uneven growth from its constituent countries. China, while still plagued by its weak property market, is expected to show robust manufacturing growth.
How will this affect aquaculture and the prognosis for 2026? Here are the top 10 salient points which includes AAP’s wish list.
1. The global aquafeed demand is likely to show modest growth in 2025 and 2026 after a 4% decline in 2024 (Alltech Global Feed Survey) and this will be pushed by high value aquaculture species.
2. In terms of feed ingredients, fishmeal prices will remain firm while soybean meal and corn-based ingredients will be soft. This leads to stable feed prices while giving alternative ingredients breathing space as they benchmark their prices versus fishmeal. Furthermore, fishmeal supply is forecasted by Rabobank to be short as early as 2027.
3. Aquafeeds will be differentiated by its sustainability credentials starting in the EU and followed by the US. As part of the value chain, Asia Pacific is starting to adopt this via its exports to the EU market. The wish is for the shrimp sector to adopt more functional feeds as a tool to mitigate stress and disease challenges.
4. The shrimp trade still faces an oversupply risk due to a continued increase in Ecuador’s exports while tariffs in the US can cause price swings. China’s stagnant demand limits the upside potential. The shrimp sector must invest in productivity and move away from just cost saving. This requires a change in mindset and in Asia, it will be the next generation farmers leading this charge.
5. Asia must find the right balance in shrimp stocking density for ROI. Ecuador has low density culture and increases production through more cycles per year via nurseries and 3-phase farming. This strategy allows for increasing volumes without challenging the carrying capacity and risking disease outbreaks. Asia, on the other hand, has adopted partial harvesting to control biomass as shrimp gain in size. Here, it is the management of densities without challenging the carrying capacity during each cycle. These strategies are not mutually exclusive. So why not do both?
6. Another wish is for Asia to adopt better feeding systems. Unlike fish where one can observe feeding to satiation, over feeding is still common in shrimp. Excess feed is not only money lost but also increases sludge buildup and Vibrio levels, leading to disease risks again.
7. Marketing is still a weak link in the supply chain for both tilapia and pangasius. There are two distinct markets and sizes for tilapia, and the product must be fit for the local market or for export. The cold chain and post-harvest logistics are crucial for the local market while capability are critical for export. Vietnam’s pangasius supply chain is fine-tuned but still lacks marketing to move up the ‘white fish’ ladder. Conversely, Regal Springs has positioned tilapia into the British ‘fish and chips’ offering, ready for the anticipated drop in ground fish catches.
8. Finding the Asian salmon remains elusive. The Asian seabass (barramundi) does not have the economies of scale to attract investments. It is not feasible for a single country to have the competitive edge along the whole value chain. The better model is for various countries to work together, each focusing on its strength and specialising in a sector to develop an integrated ecosystem. Easier said than done?
9. Tariffs and the supply chain can alter global competitiveness and the markets. How will the front loading of imported stock in 2025 affect the carry-over to 2026 in the US? For shrimp, it is forecasted that a 10% increase in price to the consumer will result in a drop of 3.5% consumption in the following 12 months (GSF 2025).
10. Seafood is the largest traded food protein in the world because producing countries are not the consumers. China, India, and Southeast Asia together represent half of the world’s population. With increasing GDP per capita in these regions, developing the local market is the way to go. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, rapid changes are occurring in Asian consumer markets for food and beverages, spurred by rising incomes, urbanisation, and an expanding middle class. India is no longer seen as a vegetarian nation with low spending power. A small uptick in per capita shrimp consumption can create a large demand.
